Warning lights have turned on once again in the Bitcoin (BTC) market. According to on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode, approximately 25% of Bitcoin holders are currently at a loss or停留在 virtually breakeven points. This means that over 25% of the circulating Bitcoin supply was purchased at prices higher than or similar to the current market price.

Glassnode assessed that this trend is highly similar to the first quarter of 2022, when the market entered a full-fledged bear market. At that time, following a decline from all-time highs, the proportion of investors at a loss increased, and the market subsequently fell into a prolonged slump. Generally, an increase in investors in the loss zone raises the likelihood of expanded selling pressure, which is interpreted as a signal of shrinking investor sentiment beyond a simple correction.

Signs of a slowdown are also being detected on the demand side. The intensity of institutional capital inflows has weakened across spot and futures markets, including spot ETFs, and new buying momentum is showing a limited trend.

In particular, the current Bitcoin price is nearing the 'average purchase price' level of all non-dormant Bitcoins, excluding miners. In on-chain analysis, this price level has historically acted as a crucial turning point separating a gradual decline from a steep one within past market cycles. If the price remains stable, the resilience of long-term holders will be confirmed; however, a breakdown could lead to further contraction in market sentiment.

However, some believe that the current market environment is not exactly the same as the past. Institutional participation through spot ETFs has expanded, and the proportion of long-term holdings is higher than before. Therefore, even if the same on-chain indicators appear, the actual price may unfold in a different pattern. The market expects that whether this key price level is defended will act as a major variable in determining the short-term direction.

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