Caution surrounding the Bitcoin (BTC) market is rising once again. On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode analyzed that approximately 25% of current Bitcoin holders are currently at a loss or effectively at a break-even point.

According to Glassnode, over 25% of the circulating Bitcoin supply has failed to enter a profitable range. This means that investors are trapped at current market prices that are lower than or similar to their purchase prices. Generally, as the number of investors in the loss zone increases, the likelihood of selling pressure expanding rises. Consequently, there are interpretations in the market that this phenomenon could be a signal of shrinking investor sentiment, going beyond a simple price correction.

In particular, Glassnode evaluated the current situation as resembling the first quarter of 2022, when the market entered a full-fledged bearish phase. In fact, in early 2022, following a continued downturn after an all-time high, the proportion of investors at a loss gradually increased, leading the overall market into a prolonged period of stagnation. Glassnode explained that although it cannot be conclusively stated that the current situation is exactly the same as back then, investors' profit structures are exhibiting a similar pattern.

There are also concerning aspects on the demand side. Recently, there are signs of demand slowdown across the board, including in spot ETFs, as well as the spot and futures markets. While the influx of institutional funds has weakened compared to before, new buying pressure is also showing a limited trend.

A notable point in the on-chain analysis is that the current Bitcoin price is approaching the average purchase price level of all non-dormant Bitcoins, excluding miners. In past market cycles, this range has served as a critical turning point, distinguishing a gradual downtrend from a sharp decline. If the price stably maintains this level, the resilience of long-term holders will be confirmed; conversely, if it falls below this level, market sentiment could shrink even further.

However, some perspectives suggest that the market environment is different from the past. Currently, institutional investor participation through spot ETFs has expanded, and the proportion of long-term holdings is higher than before. Accordingly, there are evaluations that even if the same on-chain indicators appear, the actual price movement could unfold in a different manner. The market expects that whether this price level is defended will act as a key variable in determining the short-term market direction.

[※ The information provided in this article is intended for general virtual asset news delivery and does not constitute an investment solicitation or financial advice. Virtual assets are subject to high price volatility, and investors are solely responsible for any investment losses. Please ensure careful consideration and seek professional advice before making investment decisions. This publication does not bear any legal or financial responsibility for the provided information.]