Ripple (XRP) is attempting a rebound. Investor sentiment is improving amid a combination of expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its benchmark interest rate steady and that tensions in the Middle East will ease. However, the prevailing analysis is that XRP must overcome the '$2' hurdle before a full-fledged rally can begin.

$2.00–$2.10, Key Resistance Level

Crypto analytics firm EGRAG CRYPTO presented its medium- to long-term technical outlook for XRP via the social media platform X. In this analysis, the $2.00–$2.10 range was identified as a key resistance level. The firm explained that failure to break through this range could limit the upside scenario, but a successful breakout could validate a long-term target of $9.50 or higher.

A key variable for upward momentum is the 2-month Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI must exceed 50 to maintain a bullish trend; falling below 50 could leave room for further correction. In particular, if the RSI recovers to the 52.85–55.45 range, medium- to long-term upward momentum would strengthen, and if it reaches the 80 level, a more aggressive bullish trend could be expected.

Currently, XRP is trading in the low $1 range based on CoinMarketCap data, with short-term volatility expanding.

Macro Variables, a Double-Edged Sword

The market evaluates that recent U.S. interest rate policies and geopolitical variables are having a direct impact on the overall virtual asset market. The Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The easing of concerns over rate hikes has had a positive effect on the risk asset market, but as the Fed maintains a cautious stance on future monetary policy, investor wariness remains.

On the other hand, there are also positive signals. As the possibility of recent military tensions between the United States and Iran transitioning into a ceasefire negotiation phase is raised, the risk-off sentiment in the global financial market appears to be easing somewhat. There are observations that if geopolitical risks diminish, investors' preference for risk assets could rise again.

Market participants are watching to see whether XRP will maintain support in the low $1 range in the short term and make another attempt at the $2 resistance level. However, there are also warnings that caution is needed regarding high volatility, given the mixed landscape of macroeconomic variables and geopolitical issues.

[This article was written with the assistance of AI. Businesses related to virtual assets and stablecoins may be subject to change depending on the regulations and market conditions of each country.]