There is a saying that Bitcoin moves in cycles of approximately four years. Considering the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, it is necessary to pay attention to advice on long-term investment. It is even said that the legendary investor Warren Buffett would choose a long-term holding strategy if he were to invest in cryptocurrency.

■ The Trap of Short-Term Trading

Recently, an increasing number of investors aiming for short-term gains in the cryptocurrency market have ended up losing only their fees. Every day, success stories of full-time traders making billions of won are posted in online communities, but behind them, the disillusioned traces of failed short-term investors are also clear.

For most people, this is merely a distant fantasy. It induces FOMO and stirs up anxiety, but entering the market at such a moment often leads to a downfall in nine out of ten cases. Accurately timing the market is nearly impossible for the majority of investors.

Cryptocurrencies have such high volatility that prices fluctuate several times a day. As the market repeatedly goes up and down in a short period, investors often lose their sense of direction. Even Bitcoin has experienced extreme fluctuations in the past. It once surged rapidly, fell to less than half its value, and then broke its all-time high again. This trend appears similarly in other altcoins. Over the past few years, Bitcoin has experienced massive fluctuations almost daily, a level significantly higher compared to other assets.

The problem is that attempting short-term trading amidst such volatility makes it easy to be swayed by emotions. The pattern of buying recklessly after seeing 'good news' posted on news sites or communities, and then selling at a loss during an unexpected crash is constantly repeating. It is common for investors to lose only their fees, let alone make a profit.

■ The Power of a Long-Term Holding Strategy

In contrast, a long-term holding strategy shows completely different results. Bitcoin has suffered major declines in every cycle, but there are many instances where it eventually rebounded and surpassed its previous peaks. There are analyses suggesting that it is rare for long-term holders to incur losses. This is because the trend of the cryptocurrency market often resumes an upward trajectory over time.

It is especially important not to miss the 'key phases' of a bull market. In the industry, there is a saying that "even missing a few good days can cause your profits to disappear." In fact, some analyses indicate that the majority of a year's returns are generated during a few short periods of rapid surges. Ultimately, this means that staying in the market longer is more important than hitting the right timing.

■ Distinguishing the Gems from the Rocks is Key

However, a long-term holding strategy does not guarantee success unconditionally. Holding onto any random coin for a long time does not automatically generate profits. In fact, it is known that more than half of the cryptocurrencies launched to date have already disappeared or are practically no longer traded.

Therefore, thorough verification is required before investing. Coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have survived numerous crises and continue to expand their ecosystems. It is also necessary to check which new coins are showing similar resilience. Because cryptocurrencies are constantly emerging and disappearing, distinguishing the gems from the rocks must be done carefully.

If you can select reliable assets without obsessing over short-term results and hold onto them for a long time, you will ultimately survive the fierce waves of the market. What matters most right now is timing.