■ Expert: "Decapitation Operations Show Limits... Only Strengthens the Will to Resist"

May 28, 2026 — Han Ju-sung, Director of the Middle East Center at the Korea Defense and Foreign Affairs Association, pointed out the 'limitations of leader elimination operations' as a key lesson from the Middle East war at a recent academic event hosted by the Research Institute for National Security and Unification. Analyzing the war cases involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, he noted that the conventional wisdom that removing an adversary's leader directly leads to victory in war has been shattered.

Director Han explained that although the United States and Israel conducted a massive bombing of Tehran on February 28, eliminating Ayatollah Khamenei and other Iranian leadership, Khamenei's death was accepted as martyrdom within Iranian society, which ironically strengthened anti-American sentiment and the will to resist. He stated, "The war between Israel and the United States and Iran has broken the common sense that eliminating the opponent's leader brings victory."

It was also noted that unlike previous modern warfare, this war saw direct attacks on social infrastructure. Director Han interpreted Iran's destruction of civilian facilities in neighboring countries as a strategy to deal a blow to daily life and the economy, highlight the injustice of the war, and induce the United States to voluntarily halt the conflict.

Additionally, characteristics such as a cost-effective war using suicide drones worth millions of won to induce the firing of missiles worth tens to hundreds of billions of won, the importance of the defense industry, the vulnerability of global energy security, and combat patterns centered on urban areas were mentioned. Director Han suggested that defense industry policies should be formulated with a focus on cost-effectiveness and survivability, and that a transition to a network structure is necessary.

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■ Iran's Revolutionary Guard Retaliatory Strike Against US Air Force Base in Kuwait

May 28, 2026 — The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran announced on the 28th (local time) that it had attacked a US Air Force base in retaliation for US military actions. According to Iranian state broadcasters and local media, the Revolutionary Guard targeted and struck the US Air Force base at around 4:50 a.m. on the same day.

The Iranian side explained that when the United States conducted additional airstrikes targeting Bandar Abbas in southern Iran on the morning of the same day, it immediately counterattacked the base from which the attack originated. The Revolutionary Guard defined the US military's actions as "aggression" and warned that if similar incidents were repeated, there would be a stronger response.

Although the Revolutionary Guard did not disclose the specific location of the attacked base, the possibility that Iran's target was a US military base in Kuwait was raised as a missile attack was detected in Kuwaiti airspace on the same day. The Kuwaiti military announced via X (formerly Twitter), "Kuwait's air defense network is currently responding to hostile missile and drone attacks." Kuwait hosts the Ali Al Salem Air Base, where US troops are stationed, which has been cited as a major target for Iran.

The missile attack was detected in Kuwait, where the US military base is located, immediately following the US's additional airstrike. The Kuwaiti military explained that the explosions heard within the country were the result of the air defense system intercepting the enemy's attack. This incident occurred after the United States carried out additional airstrikes against Iran just two days after the previous ones on the 25th.

Mohammad Mokhber, Chief of Staff to Iran's Supreme Leader, had warned Kuwait via X on the 16th of this month, saying, "Our restraint will not last forever." The Kuwaiti military did not identify the perpetrator of this attack.

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■ US Military Conducts Additional Airstrikes on Military Bases in Iran... Tensions Escalate Near the Strait of Hormuz

May 28, 2026 — As the United States and Iran engage in ceasefire negotiations, tensions are rising following the sound of explosions near the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported on the 27th (local time), quoting a US official, that the US military conducted airstrikes on military bases inside Iran that it deemed a threat to US troops and commercial ship navigation. The US military also shot down four Iranian attack drones that posed a threat.

Iranian local media reported that three explosions were heard east of the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas at around 1:30 a.m. on the 28th, followed by the activation of Iran's air defense network for several minutes. It has been three days since loud noises were last heard in southern Iran, following the 25th. Previously, the US Central Command stated that it conducted airstrikes on some targets in the southern region of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz on the 25th, citing the "exercise of the right to self-defense."

Currently, the United States and Iran are engaged in a war of nerves over negotiations for a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for a ceasefire. While ceasefire negotiations with Iran are ongoing, the US government has imposed additional sanctions on Iranian agencies related to the Strait of Hormuz. The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added all individuals and entities cooperating with the Iran Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) list. The PGSA is known to charge a passage fee of up to $2 million per ship during the transit approval process.

The United States is conducting 'Operation Economic Fury' to increase economic pressure on Iran, and OFAC has also implemented large-scale sanctions on the 11th and 19th of this month.

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■ US-Iran Ceasefire MOU Draft Agreement Imminent... "Includes Withdrawal of US Troops"

May 27, 2026 — Iranian state television partially disclosed on the 27th (local time) the informal draft content of the ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) currently under discussion between the United States and Iran. The draft includes a plan for the United States to withdraw the troops deployed around Iran and lift the maritime blockade. The scope of the withdrawal, including whether it covers previously existing troops, will be determined in future negotiations.

The Iranian side promised to restore the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, excluding warships, to pre-war levels within one month of the signing of the MOU, with Iran taking responsibility for designating and managing ship routes and Oman providing assistance. The state broadcaster reported that if a final agreement is reached within 60 days of the MOU signing, it will become legally binding through a United Nations Security Council resolution.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that ensuring a 60-day comprehensive ceasefire by the United States on all fronts, particularly in Lebanese territory, was included as a first-phase measure. He emphasized that the unfreezing of a significant portion of frozen Iranian assets and the end of the US maritime blockade are also essential requirements. While there is ongoing confusion in some US media reports suggesting that only hostilities between the US and Iran would cease due to Israel's opposition regarding the scope of the ceasefire, Iran maintains that Lebanon must be included.

Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran on International Affairs, said on X, "Iran's red lines are clear. A piece of paper or a signature cannot be a guarantee for an agreement. The real collateral for the agreement is the Strait of Hormuz." Ali Bagheri Kani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, stated that he is discussing new transit procedures with Oman.

The White House denied reports by Iranian media that the withdrawal of US troops around Iran was included in the draft, calling them "fabricated."

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■ Trump: "Iran Giving Up Highly Enriched Uranium Alone is Not Enough for Sanctions Relief"

May 28, 2026 — US President Donald Trump answered in a phone call with PBS on the 27th regarding whether Iran would give up its highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief, "No. Not at all. Not sanctions relief." This suggests that if Iran wants sanctions lifted, such as on oil exports, it must meet additional conditions, including a substantial curtailment of its nuclear program.

President Trump has previously insisted that Iran abandoning its nuclear weapons program and removing its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% are core conditions for a ceasefire agreement. Regarding the disposal method for the highly enriched uranium, he previously insisted on shipping it back to the United States, but on the 25th, he stated that disposal under the supervision of the US Atomic Energy Commission, either locally in Iran or in a third country, would also be acceptable.

Meanwhile, President Trump reaffirmed his positive stance on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreement between Israel and Arab nations. In response to a question asking why Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should join the accord without the establishment of a Palestinian state, he said, "Because that (joining the Abraham Accords) would be very good for Saudi Arabia."

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■ Sharp Fluctuations in International Oil Prices and Aviation Strikes... Indian Airlines Drastically Reduce Domestic Flights

May 28, 2026 — International oil prices plummeted on the 27th (local time) following a report by Iranian state media on the draft ceasefire agreement. On the ICE Futures Exchange, July Brent crude futures fell by 5.3% to $94.29 per barrel compared to the previous day, and on the New York Mercantile Exchange, July West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped by 5.6% to $88.68. It is the first time since the 20th of last month that the WTI futures closing price has fallen below $90. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President of BOK Financial, said, "It appears that the extreme fears of a global supply shortage previously reflected in crude oil prices are beginning to ease."

However, as international oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel due to the prolonged Middle East war that began with the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February, deteriorating business conditions have forced major Indian airlines to significantly reduce their domestic flights. Air India decided to cut its domestic flights by 22% from June to August, and India's largest airline, IndiGo, also reduced its domestic operations by about 7-10% in June and July. The two airlines account for 90% of the Indian domestic flight market share.

Air India recorded its largest-ever deficit, exceeding $2.3 billion, in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, and the Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA) requested the Ministry of Civil Aviation last month to reintroduce the aviation fuel price cap, provide tax reductions, and allow payment deferrals. As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East war caused difficulties in fuel supply, the Indian government has been expanding its crude oil suppliers to include not only Russia but also Venezuela and Iran, importing 5 million barrels of Iranian crude for the first time in seven years since the US sanctions on Iran in 2019.