Ripple (XRP) remains trapped in a narrow box range after failing once again to break above $1.20. According to overseas crypto media outlet CoinGape, buying pressure is forming support around the $1.10 level, but sluggish trading volume is limiting rebound momentum.

The key market variable is the CLARITY Act, a U.S. digital asset regulatory bill. According to CoinGape, the bill has passed committee but still faces Senate procedures, and the path to presidential signature has not yet been finalized.

Securing 60 Votes Is Key... Push for Passage Before August Recess

Passing the bill in the Senate requires 60 votes. Supporters need to secure at least seven additional Democratic senators before the August recess, and this vote-gathering process is cited as the biggest stumbling block for lawmakers seeking swift passage.

Eleanor Terrett, host of "Crypto in America," stated that passing the bill by July 4 (local time) is realistically unlikely. She cited ethics issues, coordination of language between the House and Senate, and difficulties in securing votes as reasons. Senator Cynthia Lummis reportedly signaled the possibility of a vote during the August recess.

Why the CLARITY Act Matters for XRP

CoinGape analyzed that the CLARITY Act could have a greater impact on XRP than the market expects. The explanation is that clearer digital asset regulation would help institutional investors evaluate tokenized payments, digital commodities, and payment infrastructure.

CoinGape reported that XRP is already being used in a pilot project for tokenized U.S. Treasury payments, but the absence of clear legal standards has limited its broader adoption.

Polymarket: 48% Probability of Enactment in 2026

According to CoinGape, citing data from prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act being enacted into law by 2026 stands at 48%. The forecast probability dropped 17 percentage points due to diminished confidence, with trading volume recorded at $1.32 million. As Senate delays and scheduling uncertainty dampen investor sentiment, related indicators have been on a downward trend since their May peak.

XRP Spot ETF Sees $2.55 Million Net Inflow at Bitwise

CoinGape reported that capital inflows into XRP spot ETFs are continuing. According to SoSoValue data, XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.55 million on June 18 (local time). The total net asset size stands at $994.81 million, representing approximately 1.39% of XRP's market capitalization.

The new inflows on that day came exclusively from Bitwise products, with no net inflows in other XRP ETF products. However, Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin products maintained their top positions in net assets, indicating sustained interest from institutional investors.

Technical Analysis: $1.15 Is the Battleground

According to CoinGape, XRP is trading at $1.143 based on the 4-hour chart. Following a sharp surge in mid-June, upward momentum has weakened, keeping it below the $1.20 resistance level. Selling pressure near $1.15 is suppressing short-term bounces, forming a curved trendline.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.80, showing weakness within neutral territory, and the MACD is also maintaining a downward trend. However, bearish candle signals are diminishing compared to before.

CoinGape projected that if XRP reclaims $1.15, the next targets could be $1.20 and $1.30. Conversely, failure to recover could see it drop below the $1.10 support level, and a breakdown of $1.10 could increase downward pressure toward $1.05.

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