The stock price of Hanmi Semiconductor, which recently underwent a steep correction, is showing signs of a rebound and drawing investors' attention. Market interest extends beyond short-term stock price recovery, focusing on whether orders for TC bonders for HBM4 will translate into actual earnings improvements.

On July 10, on the Korea Exchange (KOSPI), Hanmi Semiconductor closed at 222,000 won, up 6,500 won (3.02%) from the previous trading day.

[Weak Q1 Earnings and the Gap During the Generational Transition] The primary reason behind the recent increased volatility in Hanmi Semiconductor's stock price lies in its weak first-quarter earnings. With both revenue and operating profit dropping significantly year-on-year, market expectations for future growth momentum have also diminished.

The industry points to the gap during the HBM generational transition as the cause of this earnings weakness. This is because investments in existing TC bonders for HBM3E have concluded, while equipment orders for HBM4 have not yet been linked to full-scale revenue generation.

Of course, the stock price decline cannot be explained solely by the HBM generational shift. The investment schedules of major clients, the timing of equipment orders, excessively high earnings expectations, and the possibility of competitors entering the market are also key variables affecting the stock price.

[SK hynix HBM4 Orders... Growing Expectations for Earnings Recovery] Positive order news that boosts expectations for an earnings recovery continues to emerge. Hanmi Semiconductor has signed a supply contract with SK hynix for TC bonders used in the production of HBM4, smoothly responding to the next-generation HBM equipment market. If the use of TC bonders continues in the future next-generation product manufacturing processes, the demand for related equipment is expected to remain stable.

On the other hand, the diversification of client supply sources, performance improvements in competing equipment, and the commercialization speed of hybrid bonding technology are risk factors that need to be assessed over the mid-to-long term.

[Earnings Reversal 'Not Yet'... Follow-up Orders and Revenue Recognition Are Key] Even with new orders confirmed, earnings cannot rebound immediately. This is because a certain amount of time is required from equipment manufacturing and delivery to client inspection and revenue recognition.

Ultimately, the key factor that will determine the future direction of Hanmi Semiconductor's stock price is not a technical rebound, but 'whether actual earnings recover.' In the earnings reports going forward, it is necessary to closely examine how much TC bonder revenue and profitability have improved, whether additional orders follow, and to what extent HBM4 equipment is reflected in actual revenue.

While there are signs that the earnings gap caused by the HBM generational transition may be resolved, it is necessary to continuously monitor follow-up orders and actual revenue recognition to determine this as a full-fledged resumption of growth.

[※ This article is provided as reference material for investment decisions and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific stock. The responsibility for stock investments lies with the investor. This article was written with AI assistance.]