It is projected that Ripple (XRP) will likely struggle to reproduce this year the explosive surge of around 500% it recorded in 2024. The cryptocurrency specialized media outlet Watcher.Guru diagnosed that the upward trend at the time was the result of a complex interplay of political and market conditions, and that the circumstances have now changed significantly.

Key Factors Behind the 2024 Surge

The core driving force behind XRP's rise in 2024 was the reelection of President Trump and expectations for pro-cryptocurrency policies. Expectations for regulatory deregulation boosted investor sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market, and large-scale capital flowed in, centered around Bitcoin. At the time, Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark for the first time in history, and major altcoins rose in tandem. XRP also surged significantly, helped by expectations of eased regulatory uncertainty and a preference for risk assets.

Changed Market Environment... Three Constraining Factors

However, the current market landscape is vastly different from 2024. First, as military tensions between the U.S. and Iran persist, geopolitical uncertainty has grown, and investors are taking a cautious stance toward volatile assets. Second, as global capital concentrates in industries with high expectations for earnings growth—such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and data centers—other risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are being relatively sidelined. Third, unlike in 2024 when Bitcoin's upward trend quickly spread across the entire market, differentiation among individual assets is currently strengthening. The analysis suggests that as liquidity concentrates in specific assets and industries, it is difficult to see a market trend where altcoins rise simultaneously across the board.

Residual Upward Momentum Also Exists

Nevertheless, there is also a view that the possibility of further XRP gains has not completely vanished. Progress on U.S. cryptocurrency regulation bills, expectations for spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval, Ripple's expansion of its stablecoin business, and the growth of the XRP Ledger ecosystem could serve as new catalysts for upward movement. In particular, if institutional investors' access expands and regulatory uncertainty decreases, there is a possibility that mid-to-long-term investor sentiment will improve again.

Ultimately, for XRP to record a rate of increase comparable to 2024 levels, it appears that regulatory improvements, inflows of institutional capital, and an expansion of liquidity across the entire cryptocurrency market must occur simultaneously, beyond a simple market rebound. The analysis concludes that the market must comprehensively examine the conflict dynamics between the U.S. and Iran, global capital movements, Bitcoin's trends, and changes in U.S. cryptocurrency policy.

[※ This article is provided as reference information for investment and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific virtual asset. Virtual assets are subject to high price volatility and the risk of principal loss, so investment decisions and responsibilities lie with the investor.]