The price of Ripple (XRP) has recently shown weakness, trading at $1.08 according to CoinMarketCap.

According to overseas cryptocurrency media outlet Coingape, buying momentum has shrunk as a broader market downturn overlaps with regulatory uncertainty. Over the past 24 hours, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell 1.42% to $2.18 trillion, while Bitcoin also declined 1.24%. Coingape analyzed that rising U.S. Treasury yields and expanding geopolitical risks are leading investors to reduce their exposure to risk assets. In particular, XRP had recently risen to around $1.12 but failed to sustain its upward trend after breaking through key moving averages, ultimately pulling back.

Delay in U.S. CLARITY Act Is a Key Variable Experts point to the U.S. 'CLARITY Act' as the key variable that will determine XRP's next move. The bill addresses the division of digital asset oversight authority between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Supporters of the bill expect that clearer regulations will boost institutional investor confidence and attract new capital inflows into major cryptocurrencies.

However, passing the bill does not appear easy. U.S. Senate Republican Leader John Thune predicted that a final vote before the local recess this summer would be difficult. However, he hoped that the review process could at least begin before senators leave Washington. Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced an amendment containing provisions to protect customer assets, but disagreements over government ethics rules and stablecoin incentives remain.

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Research, lowered the probability of the bill passing within 2026 to 30%, half of his previous estimate, citing a shortened legislative schedule and a lack of time for negotiations.

Decline in Derivatives Trading Volume and Weakening Technical Indicators According to data from Coinglass cited by Coingape, XRP derivatives trading volume fell 2.72% to $1.92 billion. Open Interest also decreased by 2.56% to $2.4 billion. The simultaneous decline in trading volume and open interest is interpreted as existing positions being closed while inflows of new speculative funds remain limited.

On the 4-hour chart, XRP is trading around $1.089 as selling pressure intensifies. After failing to break the $1.15 resistance level, it fell below the ascending channel, successively losing the $1.12 and $1.10 levels and weakening its short-term trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 35.53, and the MACD is also showing a bearish signal below the baseline, indicating an expanding negative momentum.

Short-Term Support at $1.07... What Are the Conditions for a Rebound? Coingape identified $1.07 as the most important short-term support level. This price level is where buying interest previously entered during a prior rebound phase. If $1.07 breaks, the price is likely to test $1.06, the lower end of the previous ascending channel, followed by the possibility of a further drop to $1.04, which served as a support level in late June (local time).

Conversely, to successfully rebound, XRP must first reclaim $1.10. A breakout above $1.12 could then open the door for further upside toward $1.15 and $1.20. If the legislative process fails to gain momentum, XRP will continue to be influenced by macroeconomic variables and technical resistance; however, if it recovers its moving averages and market sentiment improves, a rebound remains possible.

Currently, investors are closely watching the progress of U.S. Senate discussions, U.S. Treasury yields, and Bitcoin's movements as the next key variables.

[This article is by no means intended as investment advice. The content may reflect subjective opinions and should not be used as a reference or resource for investment. All investments are made at the discretion of the individual, and the ultimate responsibility lies with the investor. This publication assumes no liability whatsoever.]