South Korea's semiconductor exports have recently broken all-time records. However, in early July, major semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix exhibited significant volatility. Despite their preliminary second-quarter earnings exceeding market expectations, their stock prices plunged sharply, even triggering a KOSPI sidecar mechanism.

This divergence, where robust exports contrast with falling stock prices, has emerged as a key focal point of this earnings season. The prevailing market interpretation is that this decline is not a signal of deteriorating earnings, but rather a classic 'Sell on the News' phenomenon. With elevated expectations already priced into the stocks, the earnings announcements served as a catalyst for profit-taking. Evaluations also continue to assert that the industry fundamentals, driven by increasing demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) stemming from expanded AI infrastructure investment, remain solid.

SK Hynix to Announce Q2 Earnings on the 29th... Record Highs Expected

Amid these circumstances, SK Hynix is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on July 29. According to securities market consensus, revenue is projected to reach approximately 84 trillion won, with an operating profit of around 64 trillion won, setting new all-time highs for both metrics.

If these projections materialize, the operating profit for the second quarter alone would surpass the estimated annual operating profit for 2025. However, it is important to note that these figures represent a preliminary consensus and may differ from the actual reported numbers.

Beyond Semiconductors to Robotics and Power Infrastructure... AI Investment Spreads

During the same period, the broader KOSPI market saw capital flows diversifying into robotics and power infrastructure themes, in addition to semiconductors. Robotics stocks gained strength on expectations of Samsung Electronics expanding its robot business, while power-related shares rallied on anticipated increases in electricity demand driven by AI data centers.

Some analyses suggest that this trend aligns with a broader macroeconomic industry shift, indicating that AI investments are expanding beyond semiconductors into physical infrastructure areas, such as power grids and power generation facilities.

Three Key Variables to Watch This Week

The following core variables will help gauge the future direction of the market:

1. Whether SK Hynix's HBM shipment volumes and pricing trends align with the consensus. 2. Whether the 'Sell on the News' pattern reoccurs following the earnings announcement, or if it leads to a restoration of market confidence. 3. The impact of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results, scheduled for the same week, on foreign investor trading flows.

With these three variables converging simultaneously, this week is expected to serve as a critical turning point that will determine the direction of the upcoming semiconductor industry cycle.

[※ This article was written based on publicly available intraday market data and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific stock. Stock prices are subject to intraday fluctuations, so investors must verify the latest disclosures and market prices before engaging in actual trading. This article was produced with AI assistance.]