As military clashes between the United States and Iran continue, renewable energy-related stocks have shown strength in the domestic stock market. Renewable energy stocks, which previously responded mainly to carbon neutrality policies and government support, are now gaining new upward momentum driven by the logic of "energy security" — specifically, reducing dependence on Middle Eastern energy and expanding domestic power production capacity.

This trend is interpreted as stemming more from the deepening uncertainty in the global energy supply chain than from simple reflective gains due to rising international oil prices. Amid concerns that the U.S.-Iran conflict could affect crude oil production and maritime transportation, market attention has shifted to domestic power production and management industries, including solar, wind, energy storage systems (ESS), and distributed power sources.

■ Key Stocks Show Selective Strength During the morning session on the 30th, among renewable energy-related stocks, OCI Holdings traded at 189,200 won, up 11.23% from the previous trading day. It rose to an intraday high of 196,100 won with a trading volume of 363,241 shares. HD Hyundai Energy Solutions rose 8.94% to 108,400 won (intraday high of 111,900 won, volume of 272,385 shares), and Hanwha Solutions climbed 8.32% to 24,750 won (intraday high of 25,300 won, volume of 2,424,057 shares).

Daemyung Energy gained 6.74% to 11,880 won, Geumyang Green Power rose 6.16% to 6,720 won, Shinsung E&G advanced 5.19% to 12,780 won, and Gridwiz increased 5.05% to 11,650 won. OCI also recorded a 4.52% gain at 64,800 won, as buying interest spread across the sector.

The key aspect of the day's movement is that the scope of gains broadened from representative solar stocks to wind power, power generation business, and power management stocks. Rather than reacting to specific product prices or single-company order news, it appears that energy supply concerns and the need for power self-sufficiency have stimulated investor sentiment across the entire sector.

■ Geopolitical Risks and the Crude Oil Market The U.S.-Iran military conflict is an unstable pattern in which ceasefire discussions and renewed clashes are recurring. Even if an all-out war does not prolong, repeated attacks and retaliations could sustain a geopolitical risk premium in the international crude oil market. International oil prices react sensitively whenever direct impacts on crude oil production facilities or transport routes are raised. Even without an actual supply disruption, the mere possibility of future supply-demand imbalances can drive up crude oil futures prices, transportation costs, and insurance premiums.

South Korea has a high dependence on overseas sources for major energy resources such as crude oil and natural gas, making it relatively sensitive to changes in Middle East dynamics. Rising international oil prices affect not only refined petroleum products and transportation costs but also power production costs, manufacturing costs, and consumer prices. Under this structure, not only energy import prices but also domestic production and storage capacities become critical. This is the background for solar and wind power being reevaluated as a means to mitigate supply chain risks, beyond their role as a response to climate change.

■ From a Policy Theme to an Energy Security Theme In the past, renewable energy stocks often moved in response to government subsidies, carbon neutrality goals, and changes in eco-friendly policies in the U.S. and Europe. They had strong characteristics of a typical policy theme, rising when policy support expanded and falling when there was a possibility of reduction.

However, with the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict and growing global electricity demand, the market's evaluation criteria are changing. The perspective of viewing renewable energy as part of environmental policy is increasingly shifting toward seeing it as a foundation for reducing dependence on crude oil and natural gas imports and securing stable power for industrial facilities.

The expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, semiconductor factories, and advanced manufacturing facilities also contributes to this change. As facilities that continuously consume large amounts of power increase, the importance of expanding power generation capacity, reinforcing transmission networks, and enhancing power storage capabilities is growing simultaneously. While Middle East-driven energy anxieties are elevating supply-side risks and the AI industry is driving up power consumption on the demand side, a new demand for energy security and industrial power procurement has emerged that cannot be explained solely by carbon emission reduction.

■ Attention to Differentiation Among Stocks It is also necessary to note the differences in gains among related stocks. While OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai Energy Solutions, and Hanwha Solutions recorded intraday gains in the 8-11% range, SK Eternics rose only 1.50%, SDN 1.93%, and S Energy 3.73%. Even within the common theme of renewable energy, differentiation occurred based on supply-demand intensity, existing stock price levels, and trading volumes. Rather than a typical theme rally where the entire sector moves uniformly in the same direction and magnitude, it can be viewed as a selective flow with buying concentrated in certain key stocks.

■ Risk Factors Must Also Be Assessed Rising international oil prices do not always have a positive impact on renewable energy stocks. Although the demand to reduce fossil fuel dependence grows when oil prices rise, a simultaneous increase in inflation and market interest rates can amplify the financial burden for power generation businesses. Solar and wind power projects require significant initial investment and recover capital over a long period, meaning that rising market rates increase financing costs and potentially lower expected profitability. Increases in raw material prices and transportation costs are also a burden. The growing need for an energy transition and actual improvements in business profitability are separate issues.

Therefore, this rally should not be dismissed as a direct benefit of war; rather, it must be approached as the result of multiple factors being reflected simultaneously, including the U.S.-Iran conflict, rising international oil prices, domestic and international energy policies, increasing power demand, and supply-demand dynamics of individual stocks.

■ Five Key Variables to Monitor Going Forward 1) The actual impact of the U.S.-Iran military conflict on crude oil supply: Even if military tensions persist, if crude oil production and transportation remain normal, the upward pressure on international oil prices may be limited.

2) Whether rising oil prices lead to renewable energy facility investments and actual orders: Even if interest in energy security grows, if groundbreaking for power projects, equipment orders, and grid investments do not follow, it will be difficult to link the trend to corporate earnings.

3) U.S. Treasury yields and domestic market interest rate movements: If rising oil prices lead to inflationary pressures and central banks tighten monetary policy further, financing costs for related projects could increase.

4) The won-dollar exchange rate: A weaker won benefits companies with high overseas revenue ratios, but for those heavily dependent on imported raw materials and equipment, it increases cost burdens.

5) Power grid and ESS investments: Even if power generation facilities expand, a lack of transmission and storage infrastructure can limit power output. It is essential to monitor whether investments in transmission networks and storage facilities proceed alongside generation capacity expansion.

This market trend demonstrates that the U.S.-Iran conflict is not merely a catalyst for refining, defense, and shipping stocks in the domestic market. As concerns over a shaken energy supply chain spread to renewable energy and power infrastructure stocks, the nature of these related stocks is also evolving.

[This article was written with the assistance of AI. It was produced for informational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any specific stock. Renewable energy-related stocks may exhibit high volatility depending on international oil prices, interest rates, exchange rates, government policies, raw material prices, power project permits, and changes in supply and demand. The final investment decision and responsibility lie with the individual investor.]