Ripple (XRP) has lost clear directional momentum since August, trapped within a narrow trading range. The biggest variable is the U.S. labor market.

The July employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the 7th (local time) sent shockwaves through the market. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 compared to the previous month. This is the exact opposite of the expert consensus estimate compiled by Dow Jones, which had projected an increase of 85,000.

In this context, XRP is trending sideways, unable to determine its next path.

The Dilemma Shown by Technical Indicators

The price is trading below both the 50-day moving average ($1.11) and the 200-day moving average ($1.36). The market views the $1.048–$1.05 range as the critical juncture that will determine the short-term direction. In recent trading, the price declined day-over-day, showing a trend of retesting the support level around $1.05.

However, there are also positive signals. Unlike the price making new lows, the RSI is instead forming higher lows, leading to a technical interpretation that downward pressure is gradually weakening.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Based on the Fibonacci retracement of the March and May swing ranges:
• $1.01: Served as a support level for about a month from late June
• $1.22: A resistance line that has blocked upward moves multiple times since late May
• $1.08: The first hurdle for a rebound

As long as the $1.01–$1.05 support holds, a staged rebound scenario remains valid: recovering $1.10 → testing the $1.22 resistance zone.

Not Just an XRP Problem

Ethereum is also forming a similar trading range without a clear direction. A common factor is the lack of additional upward catalysts, as expectations for spot ETFs have already been largely priced in.

Seasonal factors are also at play. Based on historical data, August has been a relatively weak month for XRP, making investors more cautious than usual.

Three Key Points to Watch

1. Whether the FOMC will cut rates next month and by how much 2. Whether subsequent employment data will reconfirm July's weakness or prove to be a temporary blip 3. Whether XRP can maintain its $1.05 support and successfully break through the $1.08–$1.22 range

With no clear upward catalyst confirmed, rather than jumping to conclusions about the direction, it is rational to observe the support and resistance trends for now.

[※ This article is intended for informational purposes only, and investment decisions and their consequences are the sole responsibility of the investor. As issues related to specific assets and companies are highly volatile and fluid, please verify with the latest disclosures and multiple sources before making any investment decisions. This article was partially assisted by AI.]