Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP) face three major variables this week. They are the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and the U.S.–Iran conflict. Overseas cryptocurrency media outlet CoinGape reported that price volatility in the virtual asset market could increase this week depending on these issues.

As of the 10th (local time), Bitcoin rose 0.64% while XRP fell 0.11%, showing mixed movements. Ethereum (ETH) traded up 0.44% at $1,924, and Solana (SOL) continued its weekend upward trend, recording $76 at the time of writing.

① CPI Release on the 12th… Could Strengthen Case for September FOMC Rate Hold

According to CoinGape, the U.S. CPI for July 2026 is scheduled to be released on the 12th (local time). MarketWatch data shows that experts expect the inflation rate to decline from 3.5% in June 2026 to 3.4% in July. CoinGape reported that if the actual CPI meets expectations or comes in lower than the previous month, prediction markets could see increased odds of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holding rates steady in September. It also raised the possibility that such a trend could lead to price increases for Bitcoin and XRP.

Previously, CoinGape reported that after U.S. non-farm payrolls declined by 23,000, signaling weakness in the labor market, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike has been decreasing since last week.

② Two Fed Presidents to Speak on the 13th… Clues on Rate Direction in Focus

Speeches by Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled this week. According to MarketWatch data cited by CoinGape, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will deliver a speech on the 13th (local time). On the same day, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is also scheduled to speak at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce. CoinGape analyzed that the remarks from both individuals could influence the possibility of a Fed rate hike in September. It added that they may also comment on the CPI scheduled for release the day before their speeches on the 12th.

③ U.S.–Iran Conflict… The Strait of Hormuz Variable

The conflict between the United States and Iran has also been cited as a variable that could affect Bitcoin and XRP prices. According to CoinGape, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. is reviewing options to exert economic pressure on Iran and is also considering approaches that deviate from its existing military pressure strategy. In a previous report, CoinGape noted that President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen "very soon." It also presented the outlook that the reopening of the strait could ease inflationary pressures from rising oil prices and help boost Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.

Bitcoin: Whether It Breaks $67,000 Is Key

According to CoinGape, Bitcoin traded up 0.62% at $65,244 on the 10th (local time). Data from CryptoQuant shared by CoinGape suggested that if buying pressure continues to grow even as investors who purchased Bitcoin in the last 1–3 months are in profit, the price could rise to as high as $72,000.

The data shows that the realized price for investors who purchased Bitcoin between May and August 2026 stands at $67,000. CoinGape reported that even if the current upward trend continues, if buyers at this price level move to take profits, $67,000 could act as a resistance level. On the other hand, if Bitcoin closes above this line, there are forecasts that it could climb to $72,000. The $72,000 level is where investors who have held Bitcoin since March 2026 would enter a profitable range.

CryptoQuant analyst Shayan Markets, cited by CoinGape, analyzed, "If Bitcoin moves to $72,000, it means buyers are absorbing selling pressure in the market," which could support a long-term bullish outlook.

XRP: Large Holders Purchase 380 Million Tokens in One Week

The movements of large XRP holders are drawing attention. According to CoinGape, analyst Ali Charts stated on X (formerly Twitter) that despite uncertainty over whether the CLARITY Act will pass in 2026, large XRP holders purchased 380 million XRP tokens over the course of a week.

According to Ali Charts' analysis, this buying suggests that large holders anticipate further upside even as XRP approaches the $1.06 resistance level. However, CoinGape noted that the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, indicating that the price momentum still leans toward the sell side.

The analysis suggests that if buying pressure re-enters and the RSI surpasses 50, XRP could break through the $1.06 resistance level and target the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.10. CoinGape added that if XRP closes above the 50-day EMA of $1.10 for three consecutive days, the next target could be $1.18, where the 200-day EMA is located.

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