As Ripple (XRP) on-chain trading activity declines significantly, investor attention is focusing on the future price trajectory. The market is closely watching whether the sharp drop in transaction volume will lead to a bearish trend or is merely a short-term correction.

On-Chain Transactions Drop 44%… "Not an Immediate Investor Exit"

According to Vlad Anderson, a community analyst at CoinMarketCap (CMC), recent transaction counts on the XRP Ledger plummeted from approximately 2.8 million to around 1.6 million over a span of about five days. This represents a roughly 42.9% decline by simple calculation, which nearly matches the 44% decrease cited in the original report.

Despite the sharp drop in transaction volume, analysts caution that it is premature to interpret this as network abandonment or a bearish signal. Given the nature of the cryptocurrency market, transactions tend to surge when speculative demand spikes and naturally decline as the frenzy cools, repeating this cycle. Anderson similarly explained that the decline does not mean users are leaving the network, but rather that on-chain activity at this point has simply decreased compared to before.

Key Support Level at '$1'… Future Direction Hinges on Breaking '$1.06'

The market is closely monitoring price-level order walls as well as support and resistance zones. Anderson assessed that the most critical factor is whether XRP can defend its price above the $1 psychological benchmark. He specifically identified the $1.06 level, where approximately 3 billion XRP was recently traded, as a key price zone. The massive order wall formed in that range is expected to serve as an important variable that will determine the future price trajectory.

He projected that if XRP reclaims the $1.06 range on the back of buying pressure, there is potential for further price appreciation toward the $1.35 level. Conversely, if it fails to break through that price level, he expects a gentle sideways trend to continue without a clear direction for the time being.

Limitations of the Analysis and the Need for Comprehensive Judgment

However, it should be noted that these price projections are the views of an individual analyst based on technical and on-chain data. Breaking through a specific price level does not guarantee a rise to the next target price, and XRP's price is determined by a complex interplay of numerous variables, including not only transaction counts but also the trends of major assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, market liquidity, institutional demand, and derivative positions.

In particular, it is important to consider that 'transaction count' and 'trading volume' are distinctly different metrics. Even if the number of transactions decreases, trading volume can still increase if individual trade sizes grow, and the reverse is equally true. Therefore, when assessing XRP's short-term direction, rather than relying solely on on-chain transaction counts, it is advisable to comprehensively evaluate factors such as support at $1, the absorption of the order wall around $1.06, and actual changes in trading volume.

[Virtual assets are high-risk investments with extreme price volatility. This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific virtual asset. Investment decisions and responsibilities rest solely with the investor. This article was written with AI assistance.]