August 10 Gold Prices at a Glance

As of August 10, 2026, based on the Korea Gold Exchange, the purchase price of pure gold rose slightly, while the selling price remained stable.

| Category | Buy | Sell | |---|---|---| | Pure Gold (24K·3.75g) | 863,000 won (▲1,000 won, +0.12%) | 716,000 won (flat) | | 18K (3.75g) | — | 526,300 won (flat) | | 14K (3.75g) | — | 408,200 won | | Platinum (3.75g) | 346,000 won (▲2,000 won, +0.58%) | 281,000 won (▲2,000 won, +0.71%) | | Silver (3.75g) | 11,960 won (▲50 won, +0.42%) | 10,100 won (▲40 won, +0.40%) |

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Why Has the International Gold Price Become Complicated?

Currently, the international gold market is being pulled in opposite directions by two forces.

• Upward pressure on gold prices — Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to Middle East tensions centered on the U.S. and Iran
• Downward pressure on gold prices — U.S. high interest rate policy diminishing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset

The reason the old formula of 'geopolitical tension = one-sided rise in gold prices' no longer works so simply is that war has a cascading impact on international oil prices and inflation, and ultimately on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

Fed Rate Freeze and Market Reaction

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% per annum at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29 (vote: 9 to 3). Rather than the rate freeze itself, the market's key focus is on how long the high-rate environment will persist and whether the intensity of tightening could increase again depending on inflation conditions.

• If rates remain high or are prolonged — Appeal of interest-bearing assets such as bonds and deposits ↑, burden on gold ↑
• If rate cut expectations expand — Opportunity cost of holding gold ↓, creating a favorable environment for gold prices

The market experienced significant volatility around the Fed's decision late this month. On July 29, international gold prices recovered intraday losses to close higher, as the dollar's trajectory and interpretations of monetary policy directly impacted prices.

Middle East War: Safe-Haven Buying Catalyst or Inflation Trigger?

The key reason Middle East military tensions go beyond being a simple safe-haven buying factor is oil prices. If war drives up international oil prices, it could re-stimulate U.S. inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates or even raising the possibility of rate hikes. In other words, war can be both a factor that pushes gold prices up and simultaneously suppresses them.

UBS: Projects $5,000 per Ounce by First Half of 2027

In a forecast released on the 7th, UBS suggested that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2027. However, this is a projection from a specific financial institution, and actual gold prices could vary significantly depending on U.S. monetary policy, inflation, the dollar, and geopolitical conditions.

Key Points to Watch Going Forward

The direction of the gold market ultimately depends on the tug-of-war between 'the Fed vs. war.'

• If war escalates → oil prices surge → inflation is stimulated: The interest rate burden could offset the safe-haven premium.
• If Middle East tensions persist while the U.S. economy slows and prices stabilize simultaneously: Safe-haven demand and monetary policy expectations could jointly support gold.

Therefore, when examining gold prices, one should comprehensively check not only whether war will escalate, but also U.S. consumer price and employment indicators, Fed rate forecasts, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, and international oil prices. The gold market has now entered a phase where its role as a 'safe-haven asset in times of war' and its characteristic as a 'non-yielding asset vulnerable to high interest rates' are in direct conflict.

[※ This article is not intended as investment advice, and the final judgment and responsibility for investments lie with the investor.]