Market attention on Pi Network (PI) is rapidly shifting from technology upgrades to circulating supply. This is because, despite successive network improvement efforts, the price has failed to establish a clear upward trend.

As of Korean time on the 17th, Pi Coin is moving in the late $0.08 range, continuing its battle around the $0.09 level.

Pi Coin Fails to Build an Uptrend Despite Repeated Upgrade News

Some assessments suggest that Pi Coin's recent movements are difficult to explain by development progress alone. Each time positive news such as protocol changes emerged, buying flowed in over the short term, but the pattern of subsequently giving back a significant portion of the gains repeated itself.

Pi Network launched Protocol v25 on July 22, incorporating the BN254 cryptosystem and the Poseidon hash function, among other features. At the time, growing expectations for network functionality improvements briefly pushed the price above $0.10. However, the upward momentum did not last long, and the price fell back to the $0.09 range.

Afterwards, market attention shifted to the next stage, Protocol v26. As the upgrade schedule came into focus, Pi Coin rebounded more than 7% over a week, but the strength did not translate into a trend. It later slipped to as low as $0.08269, returning a significant portion of the gains that had priced in the upgrade in advance.

1.71 Billion Unlocked Tokens Weigh on the Price Ceiling

Supply-side pressure is cited as the reason behind the limited price reaction despite technical progress. In the market, an unlocked token volume of approximately 1.71 billion is being pointed to as one of the factors pressuring the price ceiling.

While not all unlocked tokens immediately appear as sell orders in the market, the very concern that circulating supply could increase can itself affect investor sentiment.

Ultimately, the market's core focus is likely to center not on 'how many tokens have been unlocked' but on how much of the unlocked volume actually moves into the trading market. This is because even if new supply increases, price shocks can be limited if demand is sufficient to absorb it, whereas if trading liquidity is not in place, selling pressure can become relatively large.

Liquidity, Exchange Accessibility, and Regulatory Response Also Remain Challenges

The challenges Pi Network must solve remain in areas beyond price as well. In the market, expanding trading liquidity, the price formation structure, exchange accessibility, and regulatory and compliance responses are being cited as major variables for ecosystem expansion. If protocol upgrades are work that strengthens the network's technical foundation, this means that use cases and the trading environment must expand simultaneously in order to actually lift market evaluation.

RSI at 48.72 in the Neutral Zone... Indicators Still Show 'No Direction'

Short-term indicators are also not showing a clear direction yet. As of the 14th, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 48.72, placing it in the neutral zone. It is a figure closer to a range where buying and selling forces are in balance, rather than a strong overbought or oversold signal.

Moving averages are showing mixed signals. Pi Coin recovered to around $0.0881, the 20-day exponential moving average, but still remains distant from the 50-day moving average of around $0.0983. This can be interpreted as meaning that even though short-term price recovery has appeared, additional price movement is needed to confirm a trend reversal in the longer flow.

Around $0.09 Is the Key... A Breakout Would Point to the Early $0.10 Range, a Breakdown to the $0.082 Level

This is why the area around $0.09 is drawing market attention. If that level is firmly surpassed and trading volume follows, there could be room to test higher price levels again. Conversely, if the price falls below the 20-day moving average once more, it is hard to rule out the possibility that the recently formed short-term recovery trend will weaken.

Some analyses project that if the price climbs above the 50-day moving average, the early $0.10 range could again become an area to watch. Meanwhile, there is also the view that if short-term support lines waver, the $0.082 level could re-emerge as a price level of market interest. However, technical price levels can change quickly depending on market conditions, so caution is needed against treating them as definitive target prices.

The Next Watch Point Is 'Post-Upgrade Changes'

The variable that will determine Pi Coin's future trajectory may be the changes after the upgrade rather than the technology upgrade itself. This is because factors such as the actual scale of unlocked tokens flowing into the market, whether trading support expands, progress on regulatory response and compliance, and real usage demand within the Pi ecosystem must all be confirmed together.

In particular, this episode again demonstrates that in the cryptocurrency market, technological development and token prices do not necessarily move in the same direction. Even if the network improves, concerns about supply increases can be reflected more strongly; conversely, even if supply pressure exists, if users and liquidity grow quickly, market evaluation can change.

Therefore, the next watch point surrounding Pi Coin is not merely whether new upgrades are announced. Whether the technological improvements already made connect to actual usage growth and expanded market accessibility, and whether market demand can digest the increasing circulating supply, are emerging as more important judgment criteria.

Currently, Pi Coin stands at a juncture where two different factors—technological progress and supply pressure—are in conflict. Rather than the $0.09 breakout itself, it is necessary to also watch how trading volume and the supply-demand structure change in the process.

[This article was written for informational purposes only and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific virtual asset or recommend investment. Virtual asset prices are highly volatile and can fluctuate sharply over short periods. The outlooks, target prices, and technical indicators mentioned in the article are the views of the respective institutions and analysts and may differ from actual results. Responsibility for gains and losses arising from investment lies entirely with the investor, and investors are urged to carefully review all decisions under their own judgment and responsibility before making any investment decision. AI assisted in part.]