An analysis has been raised that Bitcoin rebounded without going through the so-called 'capitulation zone' that repeatedly appeared in past bear markets. The interpretation is that the expansion of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional investor participation may have changed Bitcoin's long-term price structure itself.

"This Bottom Is Different from Past Bear Markets"

Mark The Ape, an analyst active in the CoinMarketCap community, diagnosed that Bitcoin showed movements different from past major bear markets during this bottoming process.

The key indicators he presented were 'Realized Price' and realized price levels reflecting recent investors' acquisition costs. Realized Price is an on-chain indicator calculated based on the last moved price of Bitcoin existing in the market, and it is used not as a simple current price but to gauge the level at which market participants actually acquired Bitcoin.

The Formula of Past Bear Markets Where 'Capitulation' Repeated

In the past Bitcoin market, whenever large-scale corrections continued, prices fell to these realized price zones and a pattern of concentrated stop-losses and panic selling repeatedly appeared. In particular, when strong bear markets progressed and Bitcoin prices were pushed down to the average acquisition price of long-term holders, a 'capitulation' phenomenon occurred in which investors who could not endure losses left the market, and after selling pressure was exhausted, a new market cycle began—a pattern observed several times in the past.

However, Mark The Ape attached significance to the fact that in this correction, Bitcoin turned its direction upward before seriously testing these major realized price zones. He raised the possibility that Bitcoin's cycle structure has changed from before. In particular, he explained that capital inflows through ETFs and institutional investor participation may be forming a structural buying base at higher price levels than in the past.

Should Bottom-Detection Strategies Also Change?

If this hypothesis is correct, strategies for judging market bottoms based solely on past bear market formulas will inevitably need to change. This is because the market bottom could form first while waiting for the traditional 'final sell-off' in which prices fall to long-term realized prices.

However, at this stage, it is difficult to conclude that Bitcoin's mid- to long-term bottom has been confirmed based on this rebound alone. ETF fund flows and institutional demand can also change depending on market conditions, and the macroeconomic environment, liquidity, and derivative positions could create additional volatility.

Mark The Ape also presented the recently breached zone as a condition for confirming Bitcoin's future movements. He argued that if BTC continues its upward trend without breaking below that price level again, momentum could build for the scenario that the bottom has already formed.

Ultimately, the question the market is raising in this Bitcoin correction does not stop simply at 'where is the bottom.' As ETF and institutional funds penetrate deeply into the Bitcoin market, whether the formula of the market cycle formed through the past four halvings is itself changing is emerging as a new variable.

[Cryptocurrency is subject to very high price volatility, and on-chain indicators, technical analysis, and market outlook may differ from actual future price movements. A market bottom or upward trend cannot be confirmed solely by support or breakout at specific price levels. Before investing, it is necessary to sufficiently check market conditions and risk factors, and this article is not intended to recommend the purchase or sale of any specific cryptocurrency. This article was written with AI assistance.]