As some altcoins such as Ripple (XRP) show strong momentum, speculation is growing in the cryptocurrency market over whether the so-called 'altcoin season' is beginning. However, some analysts argue that it is too early to judge this as an altcoin rally across the entire market, given that Bitcoin's (BTC) market dominance remains at a high level.

[Different in nature from a typical altcoin season]

Zarrar_404, active in the CoinMarketCap community, recently analyzed the rallies in Zcash and Ripple, saying the phenomenon is closer to capital selectively moving into assets with specific catalysts rather than a typical altcoin season in which funds spread across the entire market. The Bitcoin market dominance figure he cited is 57.5%.

The explanation is that, given Bitcoin's sustained high market dominance, it is difficult to see investor funds flowing out of Bitcoin and broadly moving into small- and mid-cap altcoins as a whole. Indeed, in the recent altcoin market, rather than all coins rising simultaneously, the movements of select assets with individual catalysts have stood out.

Zarrar_404 interpreted the rallies in Zcash and Ripple as selective gains driven by individual catalysts such as ETF-related progress or regulatory issues, rather than an expansion of liquidity across the entire market.

[The benchmark for judging an altcoin season is 'Bitcoin dominance']

In a typical altcoin season, Bitcoin's market dominance falls rapidly while trading funds spread across numerous altcoins. A representative pattern is the rally spreading from large-cap altcoins to mid- and small-cap coins, with overall market trading volume and liquidity increasing together.

The key point of this analysis is that such conditions have not yet been sufficiently confirmed. In particular, with Bitcoin's market dominance staying in the 57% range, it is difficult to conclude from the surges of a few altcoins alone that market leadership has shifted from Bitcoin to altcoins.

[Key indicators to watch: whether dominance falls and whether volume and liquidity expand]

The analysis points out that going forward, the market should be watched not only for individual rallies in Zcash and Ripple, but also for whether Bitcoin's market dominance declines and whether overall altcoin trading volume and liquidity expand simultaneously. If Bitcoin's dominance clearly falls and the rally spreads broadly to even small- and mid-cap altcoins, this could support the possibility of entering an altcoin season.

Conversely, if Bitcoin's dominance remains at high levels, the recent movements may be closer to a rotational market focused on individual coins rather than a trend shift across the entire market. Ultimately, whether the strength of Zcash and Ripple spreads as a signal awakening the entire altcoin market, or ends as short-term fund movement concentrated in specific coins, is cited as the key variable that will determine the next trend.

[※ This article was written for the purpose of providing information about the cryptocurrency market and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific virtual asset or guarantee investment returns. Price forecasts, support and resistance levels, target prices, and other details mentioned in the article are scenarios based on technical analysis by market participants and may unfold differently from actual price movements. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets with extreme price volatility, and you may lose part or all of your investment principal. Investment decisions and their responsibilities rest with the investor, so please fully review market conditions and relevant information before investing. This article was written with AI assistance.]