Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have given back some of their recent gains, falling back toward their short-term moving averages. While the medium- to long-term technical trend remains upward, trading volume and momentum have weakened simultaneously, leaving further gains dependent on fresh buying inflows.

Ethereum Holds Slight Edge in Recent Returns

According to Binance spot market data released on the 24th, Ethereum has slightly outperformed Bitcoin in recent returns. Ethereum rose 11.13% over the past 7 days and 8.28% over 30 days, while Bitcoin gained 10.39% and 6.51% over the same periods, respectively.

Prices Near Short-Term Moving Averages... A Direction-Seeking Phase

Short-term price positions tell a somewhat different story. Bitcoin, at around $84,128, is trading about 0.7% above its 7-day moving average (MA7) of roughly $83,524. Ethereum, at around $2,687, is nearly touching its MA7 of approximately $2,685. Both assets are searching for direction near their short-term trendlines following the recent sharp rally.

Medium- to Long-Term Uptrend Structure Still Intact

Compared to longer moving averages, the upward structure remains intact. Bitcoin is trading above both its MA25 (around $79,575) and MA99 (around $69,169), while Ethereum also sits above its MA25 (around $2,528) and MA99 (around $2,069). The bullish alignment of moving averages, with short-term lines above medium- and long-term lines, is also being maintained.

Momentum indicators also lean bullish. Both assets continue to hold MACD golden crosses, and the SuperTrend indicator points upward for both as well.

Signs of Change in the Pace of the Rally

However, changes can be detected in the pace of the rally. Bitcoin's MACD histogram fell from 567.43 to 481.62, while Ethereum's shrank from 13.52 to 10.12. This can be interpreted as a sign that the strength of recent buying momentum has weakened compared to before, even as prices remain within an uptrend.

RSI(6) readings came in at 64.60 for Bitcoin and 62.14 for Ethereum. While neither asset has reached the conventional overbought threshold of 70, both show the heightened short-term elasticity built up during the recent rally cooling off.

Correction From Recent Highs Remains Limited

The distance from recent highs is also noteworthy. Bitcoin is trading about 3.74% below its 7-day high of $87,395.67, while Ethereum is down roughly 4.27% from its recent peak of $2,807.34. On the other hand, compared to their 7-day lows, Bitcoin is 10.69% higher and Ethereum 11.35% higher. Rather than fully surrendering their sharp gains, both assets are consolidating near the upper end of their recently formed price ranges.

Key Question Is Whether Volume Expands... Large Orders Show Net Outflows

The key question is whether trading participation expands again. As of the latest tally, today's trading volume stands at 0.17 times the recent 7-day average for Bitcoin and 0.13 times for Ethereum. Large-order flows also show net outflows on both sides: -2,064.79 BTC for Bitcoin and -22,988.47 ETH for Ethereum.

However, these figures are intraday data compiled before the completion of the daily candle, and the numbers could change significantly depending on subsequent volume and order flows.

Short-Term Supply and Demand the Key Variable Ahead

Ultimately, both Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to have entered a phase where confirming short-term supply and demand matters more than the long-term trend. While Ethereum is slightly ahead in recent returns, both assets have moved closer to their short-term moving averages, and their MACD upward momentum has weakened at the same time. Whether trading volume picks up and prices move back toward recent highs, or conversely, prices slip below their short-term moving averages and the correction deepens, will be the variable that determines the next move.

[Virtual assets are highly volatile, and intraday prices, trading volumes, and technical indicators are subject to continuous change. This content is information based on the market data provided and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific virtual asset. Responsibility for investment decisions and any resulting gains or losses rests with the investor. AI provided partial assistance.]