Domestic gold prices in South Korea showed mixed movements by product on October 2, 2026. According to Goldprice.com-based figures, pure gold, 18K, and 14K all declined, while platinum rose and silver fell.

■ Pure Gold, 18K, and 14K Fall, Platinum Rises

According to Goldprice.com data, pure gold (3.75g) fell 3,000 won from the previous day to 700,000 won when selling, and dropped 2,000 won to 796,000 won when buying. 18K fell 2,000 won to 517,000 won when selling, and 14K also dropped 2,000 won to 401,000 won when selling.

Platinum showed an upward trend. Platinum (3.75g) rose 1,000 won each to 270,000 won when selling and 326,000 won when buying. Silver (3.75g) fell 150 won to 10,350 won when selling and dropped 100 won to 10,850 won when buying.

■ Rising U.S. Treasury Yields a Burden on Gold Prices

Generally, rising U.S. Treasury yields act as a burden on gold prices. This is because higher Treasury yields can increase the relative opportunity cost of holding gold.

In the U.S. bond market that day, long-term yields rose sharply. Concerns that inflation pressure could grow again due to rising international oil prices, combined with wariness over the U.S. government's fiscal burden and increased Treasury supply, expanded bond selling. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.34% was in line with this trend.

However, central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand are being cited in the market as factors supporting the bottom of gold prices. In particular, some analysts say that with central bank and physical gold demand expanding since 2022, it has become difficult to explain gold price movements by U.S. Treasury yield increases alone.

■ Fed Rate Outlook...October Hike Probability Falls to 38%

The Federal Reserve's policy rate outlook is also a key variable for the gold market. While the Fed raised its benchmark rate in September, recently released U.S. inflation indicators came in below market expectations, dampening expectations of an additional rate hike in October. The market's probability of an October rate hike fell from 51% the previous day to 38%, after reaching 71% a week earlier.

The possibility of U.S. policy rates and market rates moving in different directions is also drawing attention. Even if expectations for additional Fed rate hikes weaken, if the U.S. government's fiscal burden, expanded Treasury supply, and inflation concerns from rising international oil prices persist, long-term Treasury yields such as the 10-year could remain at high levels. In this case, a tug-of-war between the Fed's rate policy and long-term Treasury yields could continue in the gold market. A lower probability of a policy rate hike is positive for gold, but if the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 5% for a prolonged period, it could burden further gains in gold prices.

■ Dollar Strength and U.S. Employment Data Also Variables

Dollar movements are another variable. If the dollar strengthens alongside rising U.S. Treasury yields, it could pressure dollar-denominated gold prices. Indeed, amid the global bond sell-off on the 1st, the dollar showed strength against major currencies.

The market's next focus is on U.S. employment data. If the labor market comes in stronger than expected, expectations of additional Fed rate hikes could resurface, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. Conversely, if employment slowdown is confirmed, rate hike expectations could decline, creating a relatively favorable environment for gold prices.

Ultimately, the key to the gold market is U.S. interest rates. Not only the Fed's policy rate outlook but also the movement of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which surged to 5.34% during the session, is important. With gold holding at the $4,100 level even in a high-rate environment, whether U.S. rates rise further or stabilize at peak levels is emerging as the key variable that will determine the direction of gold prices in the short term.

[※ This article is for investment reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments are made at one's own discretion, and the final responsibility for buying and selling rests with the investor.]