Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered the $85,000 level, continuing its medium-term uptrend. Trading above all short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, the technical trend is tilting upward. However, with trading volume significantly below normal and the MACD dead cross still unresolved, the short-term picture shows an uptrend at odds with warning signals.

◆ Closes at $85,179… 7-Day, 30-Day, and 90-Day Returns All Positive

According to daily candle data from October 4, Bitcoin closed at $85,179.45, up 0.50% from the previous day. It opened at $84,753.57, dipped to $84,719.99 intraday, and rose to as high as $85,428.01.

Returns across periods are also in positive territory: up 0.87% over the past 7 days, 4.83% over 30 days, and 33.83% over 90 days.

◆ Moving Averages in Bullish Alignment… Medium-Term Trend Structure Intact

The moving averages show a clear bullish structure. The 7-day moving average stands at $84,302.62, the 25-day at $81,697.74, and the 99-day at $71,407.11. The current price is above all three moving averages.

Notably, the 7-day line sits above the 25-day line, which in turn is above the 99-day line — a 'bullish alignment' structure. This indicates that rather than being a mere short-term price rise, the medium-term trend structure remains intact.

The Supertrend indicator also points upward, with its current value calculated at $79,019.11. Taken together, the moving averages and Supertrend show trend indicators still leaning toward the upside.

◆ RSI Rises to 68.54… MACD Dead Cross Remains Unresolved

However, momentum indicators send somewhat different signals. The 6-day relative strength index (RSI) rose from 64.15 to 68.54. This suggests strengthening buying momentum, but it is also approaching levels where prices can become sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

The MACD remains in a dead cross state. The DIF stands at 1,908.27, the DEA at 2,058.07, and the histogram at -149.80. Notably, the histogram improved from -156.13 to -149.80. This can be interpreted as bearish momentum easing somewhat, though it has not disappeared.

◆ About 2% from Recent High… Retest of the $87,000 Range Is the Key Watch Point

The distance from recent highs is not large. Bitcoin is currently about 2.34% below its 7-day high of $87,220 and 3.17% above its 7-day low of $82,563. Compared to the 30-day high of $87,395.67, it is about 2.54% lower. As a result, whether Bitcoin can retest the recent high zone in the $87,000 range has emerged as a short-term focal point.

◆ Volume at 0.24x the 7-Day Average… A Limiting Factor for the Rebound's Credibility

Trading volume is a factor limiting the credibility of this rebound. Volume on the day came in at just 0.24 times the recent 7-day average, meaning the price rise was not accompanied by sufficient trading participation. Compared with an equal rise backed by sharply higher volume, the technical confirmation strength here is relatively low.

The 1-day large-order flow showed a net inflow of 225.36 BTC, measured at 2.37% of tracked flows. This is a positive supply-demand factor, but this indicator alone is insufficient to conclude the uptrend is strengthening.

◆ 'The Trend Is Upward, but Short-Term Confirmation Is Lacking'

In summary, Bitcoin's medium-term trend structure remains positive. This is supported by the current price trading above the 7-, 25-, and 99-day moving averages while maintaining bullish alignment.

On the other hand, short-term flows send mixed signals. The RSI has climbed to 68.54, signaling stronger momentum, but the MACD dead cross persists and volume remains at 24% of the 7-day average. Bitcoin's chart can therefore be viewed as being in a phase of 'upward trend but insufficient short-term confirmation.'

If volume and momentum strengthen together as Bitcoin approaches its recent highs, the technical credibility of the upward move could increase. Conversely, if upward momentum weakens near the recent highs in the $87,000 range and volume does not pick up, a period of sideways movement or price correction cannot be ruled out.

[This article was written for informational purposes based on market data and technical indicators provided as of October 4, 2026. Cryptocurrency prices and indicators may vary depending on the exchange and time of aggregation, and technical analysis-based outlooks may not match actual price movements. Cryptocurrencies carry high price volatility and the risk of principal loss. This article does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific cryptocurrency; investment decisions and their consequences rest solely with the investor. AI assistance was used in writing and organizing this article.]