Ethereum (ETH) is showing notable movements in the derivatives market. Claims have emerged that whale investors' long positions increased 218% over the past three days, alongside an analysis that liquidity related to short positions is considerably larger than that of longs. The fact that the two analyses point to different variables — derivatives positioning and spot demand — is drawing attention.

■ Ted: "Most Downside Liquidity Exhausted"... Short-Related Liquidity Around $5 Billion

Crypto market analyst Ted stated on X on the 10th that most of Ethereum's downside liquidity has currently been exhausted. According to the figures he presented, the size related to short positions is approximately $5 billion, while the size related to long positions is approximately $1.53 billion. Comparing the two figures, the short-related size is about 3.27 times larger than the long-related size.

However, whether these figures represent actual open interest or estimated liquidation liquidity formed at specific price ranges cannot be clearly confirmed from the post alone. This difference serves as a useful indicator for examining zones where liquidation pressure may arise as prices move. Moreover, the mere fact that short-related liquidity is large does not guarantee that Ethereum's price will rise. Ted cited weakening Ethereum spot demand as a major concern, expressing the view that the possibility of further correction remains high if buying pressure in the spot market is not sufficiently supported.

■ Merlijn The Trader: "Whale Long Positions Up 218% in Three Days"... Retail Selling, Whales Buying

In contrast, an analysis focusing on whale investors' movements has also emerged. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader claimed on X that Ethereum whales' long positions increased 218% over the past three days. He explained that while Ethereum's price was falling, large investors actually expanded positions betting on a rise. He particularly emphasized that when Ethereum's price reached the $2,400 level, retail investors sold while whales bought.

This shows that market participants are responding differently to the same price decline. Some retail investors sold out of concern about further downside, while whale investors used the price drop as an opportunity to expand long positions. However, the 218% increase is a figure presented by Merlijn The Trader, and the specific scope of aggregation, reference point in time, and position sizes cannot be verified from the post.

■ Conclusion: Whale Long Expansion × Weak Spot Demand... Watch for Changes in Liquidation Pressure

The core of the two analyses surrounding the current Ethereum market is that spot demand and derivatives market movements do not necessarily move in the same direction. The expansion of whale long positions may reflect expectations of a rise, but if spot buying power to actually support the price is weak, further correction cannot be ruled out. Conversely, the simultaneous presentation of the analysis that downside liquidity has been largely exhausted and the large-scale short-related liquidity is something to watch in future price movements.

Ultimately, to judge Ethereum's future trajectory, one must examine not only changes in whale investors' positions but also whether spot demand recovers and how liquidation pressure changes in the derivatives market.

[This article was written based on social media posts by publicly active crypto analysts. The position sizes and growth rates presented are claims by the post authors and have not been independently verified. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk investment assets with high price volatility, and market outlooks may differ from actual results. This article is not intended as investment advice, and investment decisions and their resulting responsibility lie with the investor. AI assistance was used in the writing of this article.]