Bitcoin (BTC) stands at a critical inflection point. With the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a speech by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman scheduled back to back, the possibility of significant price volatility has been raised. While large investors, known as 'whales,' are showing signs of accumulation, selling pressure in the market still outweighs buying.

According to CoinGape on the 12th (local time), forecasts suggest that Bitcoin volatility could increase ahead of the US CPI release on the 14th (local time) and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech on the 15th (local time). As of 6:25 p.m. on the 12th Korean time, the Bitcoin price stood at $83,424 according to CoinMarketCap, up 0.58% over the past 24 hours.

Inflation Expectations Rise... Bets on 2026 Rate Hikes Emerge as a Variable

CoinGape analyzed that if US inflation rises as much as the market expects, downward pressure could be applied to the Bitcoin price. According to MarketWatch data, the market expects the September US CPI to rise 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the 3.4% recorded in August. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also projected to rise from 2.4% to 2.5%.

CoinGape cited rising international oil prices as the background for the inflation outlook. Although US President Donald Trump stated he would not launch additional attacks on Iran before the midterm elections, rising oil prices are still influencing inflation forecasts.

Notably, CoinGape predicted that if actual inflation comes in line with market expectations, Bitcoin could decline as investors price in the possibility of additional rate hikes in 2026. According to CoinGape's prediction market data, the current probability of the Fed raising rates further in 2026 stands at 55%.

Another variable is Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech scheduled for the 15th (local time) in Thailand. According to CoinGape, the market is watching whether Chairman Warsh will mention the current inflation situation or the possibility of further rate hikes at the October and December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The content of the speech could also shift market expectations regarding additional rate hikes in 2026.

Whale Accumulation Increases... 'A Signal of Improving Market Sentiment'

Large Bitcoin holders are also showing signs of accumulation. According to CoinGlass data cited by CoinGape, Bitcoin's weighted funding rate rose from -0.0015% to 0.0043%. CoinGape interpreted this change as a signal that market sentiment toward Bitcoin is improving ahead of the US CPI release and the Fed Chairman's speech.

Large investors' holdings also increased. According to CryptoQuant data cited by CoinGape, Bitcoin whale wallet holdings have again surpassed 3.02 million BTC. The figure representing whales' share of Bitcoin flowing into Binance also fell from 0.7 BTC to 0.39 BTC.

CryptoQuant analyst Sherif explained that the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin supply in loss has fallen below 30%. He analyzed that such declines often serve as a signal of the end of selling pressure and frequently precede long-term bullish outlooks for Bitcoin.

However, CoinGape noted that the increased whale accumulation has not yet translated into a clear recovery in overall Bitcoin demand. In fact, the 'Apparent Demand' indicator, which reflects real Bitcoin demand, has fallen into negative territory at -23,000 BTC.

Technical Analysis... 'Holding the $81,062 Support Level'

In technical analysis, Bitcoin's maintenance of key support levels draws attention. According to CoinGape, despite recent increases in selling pressure, the Bitcoin price remains above the $81,062 support level on the weekly chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is rising while staying in positive territory. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) bars also signal that upward momentum remains strong.

CoinGape analyzed that if Bitcoin demand increases again, a close above the $87,400 resistance level would be needed to confirm a return to the uptrend. Conversely, if the decline continues and the $81,000 support level breaks, the Bitcoin price could fall to $76,000, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Ultimately, CoinGape pointed out that despite increased whale accumulation ahead of the US inflation data and the Fed Chairman's speech, overall Bitcoin demand remains sluggish. Whether key support levels hold and whether demand recovers were presented as the variables that will determine future price movements.

[This article is by no means investment advice. The content may merely reflect opinions, so please do not use it as a reference or material for investment. All investments are made at one's own discretion, and the final responsibility lies with the investor. This publication assumes no responsibility whatsoever.]