Amid growing uncertainty over the direction of U.S. interest rates, the cryptocurrency Ripple (XRP) is struggling to secure upward momentum in a key price range. As U.S. inflation pressure rises, the possibility of additional tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has come into focus, and wariness over shrinking investment sentiment persists in the cryptocurrency market.

■ Battle in the $1.30–$1.44 Range… Technical Indicators Also Weak

The price range drawing market attention on the 15th is $1.30 to $1.44. XRP is having difficulty sustaining an uptrend within this range, and technical indicators also show selling pressure remains relatively dominant.

XRP's relative strength index (RSI) stood at 36. Generally, an RSI below 30 signals potential oversold conditions; while the current figure does not reach that threshold, it indicates weakened upward momentum. The price is also trading below three moving averages, continuing technical pressure. However, the specific periods of the moving averages could not be confirmed.

■ September CPI at 3.7%… Fed Monetary Policy Is the Key Variable

U.S. monetary policy is also a major factor likely to affect XRP's price. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for September rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%. The figure was also higher than the previous month's 3.4% increase, raising concerns that inflation pressure is not easing easily.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate to 3.75–4.00% annually in September. Markets are watching whether an additional rate hike will take place at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 27th–28th. However, as forecasts for a rate hold prevail, the actual policy decision depends on future economic indicators and the Fed's judgment.

■ Rate Hikes Pose Fund Outflow Risk… Even a Hold Does Not Guarantee a Rally

If the benchmark rate rises, assets offering interest income such as U.S. Treasury bonds become more attractive, while cryptocurrencies including XRP could face headwinds in attracting investment funds. If high rates persist for a long period, investment sentiment toward risk assets may also shrink. Conversely, if the Fed pauses rate hikes or signals of slowing inflation are confirmed, cryptocurrency market sentiment could improve.

However, a rate hold does not guarantee an XRP rally. Technically, the key watch points are whether XRP can hold around $1.30 and recover $1.44. Whether the RSI rebounds and whether moving averages recover can also serve as reference indicators for judging future price movements.

Ultimately, XRP finds itself in a situation where technical weakness and uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy intersect. Going forward, the Fed's rate decision, inflation trends, and whether funds flow into the cryptocurrency market are expected to be key variables determining the price direction.

[This is not a policy decision, and future prices cannot be predicted through technical analysis alone. Cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and the risk of principal loss, so careful judgment is required. AI assisted in part.]