As Bitcoin (BTC) tests the $80,000 support level, investment sentiment in the virtual asset market is gradually turning cautious. With voices warning of further declines continuing, the derivatives market is showing rising trading volume alongside shrinking open interest, highlighting uncertainty over the market's direction.

■ Fear and Greed Index at 50 'Neutral'…Cooling from 64 'Greed' a Month Ago

According to CoinMarketCap's (CMC) market analysis on the 16th, the Fear and Greed Index recorded 50, a neutral level. This is 1 point lower than the previous day's 51 and 6 points down from 56 a week earlier. Investor sentiment, which was in greed territory at 64 a month ago, is gradually cooling.

The index remaining in neutral territory means market expectations are not clearly tilted toward either buying or selling. However, given that the index has declined over recent weeks, it can be interpreted that investors are placing more weight on risk management than aggressive buying.

■ "Fall to $65,000?" Bearish Scenarios Draw Attention Online

A somewhat different pattern is being observed in online investors' reactions. The Social Media Sentiment Index stood at 5.74 out of 10, a mildly optimistic level. However, posts anticipating further correction in Bitcoin are drawing attention. Some market participants suggest Bitcoin could be pushed down from $82,000 through $75,000 and $70,000 to as low as $65,000. This price path is merely a bearish scenario of certain investors and does not mean an actual decline is confirmed.

■ Futures Volume Up 24.64% vs. Open Interest Down 4.07% 'Divergence'

The derivatives market showed a divergence between trading activity and position holdings. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual futures volume increased 24.64% to $103 billion, while total open interest was tallied at $39.644 billion, down 4.07%. The decline in open interest despite rising volume suggests that position unwinding and short-term trading were likely more active than continuous expansion of new leveraged positions. However, it is difficult to conclude from these two indicators alone that selling pressure is dominant.

Liquidation figures also changed. Liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled $28.05 million, down 86.32%. The reduced forced liquidation pressure indicates short-term market shocks have eased, but at the same time, the momentum for a sharp price rebound that can follow large-scale liquidations may also be limited.

■ Next 24–48 Hours…'$80,000' Is the Key Variable for Short-Term Direction

The market is watching Bitcoin's movement around the $80,000 level over the next 24–48 hours as a key observation point. If it persistently falls below that price level, investor sentiment could shrink further; conversely, if support is confirmed, there is room to seek short-term stability.

Ultimately, the virtual asset market is currently interpreted as having formed neither clear bullish conviction nor one-sided bearish sentiment. With declining sentiment indicators and position reduction in the derivatives market appearing simultaneously, whether Bitcoin holds its key price levels and the flow of trading are emerging as variables that will gauge short-term direction.

[Virtual assets are highly volatile, and market outlooks may not match actual movements. The price levels mentioned do not constitute investment solicitation or guaranteed returns, and responsibility for investment decisions and their outcomes lies with the investor. AI assistance was utilized in the writing of this article.]