Wall Street's attention is focused on SpaceX ahead of its third-quarter 2026 earnings release. With growth continuing in its artificial intelligence (AI) computing business and Starlink satellite internet service, large-scale capital expenditures and technical challenges with the Starship propulsion system are cited as key variables in the earnings outlook.

■ Market Expects $12.89 Billion in Revenue vs. UBS at $13.8 Billion

According to market forecasts on the 20th, SpaceX's third-quarter revenue is expected to reach approximately $12.89 billion. UBS presented a higher figure of $13.8 billion, forecasting results that would exceed market expectations.

UBS projected third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $7.5 billion, about 9% higher than the market consensus of $6.9 billion. UBS cited expansion of the AI business, growing Starlink subscribers, and growth in the space launch business as the basis for its outlook.

■ Q2 Revenue Up 92%... Growth Across All Business Segments

According to SpaceX's second-quarter results, revenue was approximately $7.8 billion, up 92% from $4.1 billion a year earlier. Net loss narrowed to $541 million from about $1 billion a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.5 billion from $1.2 billion.

The company said in its Q2 earnings release that revenue increased across all business segments, including space launch, communications, and AI. In particular, the communications segment saw revenue up 66% and operating profit up 79% year over year, driven by a doubling of Starlink subscribers and growth in business from enterprise and government customers.

In the AI business, the expansion of cloud service contracts stood out. SpaceX said at its Q2 release that it had signed cloud service contracts totaling $14.1 billion. It also announced a deal to acquire Cursor for $60 billion to expand AI business opportunities, and said it unveiled the AI model Grok 4.5 in July.

■ UBS Q3 Segment Outlook: AI $7.6 Billion, Communications $4.9 Billion, Space $1.3 Billion

This business expansion is also reflected in the Q3 outlook. UBS expects AI segment revenue of $7.6 billion in the third quarter, citing an expanded contract with Anthropic and initial revenue contribution from a Google-related contract.

Revenue for the communications segment, including Starlink, is forecast at $4.9 billion, up 59% year over year, with UBS expecting subscriber growth and expanded communications services to drive the increase. The space launch business is also expected to continue growing, with UBS projecting approximately $1.3 billion in space segment revenue for the third quarter, driven mainly by increased commercial launches.

■ TD Cowen: "AI Computing Lease Revenue to Reach $133 Billion by 2028"

Brokerages have also offered outlooks on the mid- to long-term AI business. TD Cowen expects SpaceX's AI computing lease revenue to grow from $14 billion in 2026 to $66 billion in 2027 and $133 billion in 2028. However, these projections assume future business expansion, and actual revenue may differ.

■ Q3 Capex Estimated at $19.3 Billion... Starship Technical Challenges Remain

The financial burden from large-scale investments is also worth watching. UBS estimates SpaceX's third-quarter capital expenditures at $19.3 billion, analyzing that significant spending is being incurred as the company expands AI computing infrastructure, satellite communications networks, and space launch capabilities.

Technical challenges related to Starship development also remain. SpaceX said in its Q2 earnings release that it had successfully completed two Starship V3 flight tests in the past 90 days. However, Morgan Stanley noted that one engine shut down prematurely in the subsequent first orbital test flight, pointing to recurring issues with the propulsion system. While that test achieved its main objectives, including deploying 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, propulsion system stability remains a task to be verified in follow-up tests.

■ $100 Billion in Cash, $47.5 Billion Backlog

SpaceX's financial capacity is also a focus of attention. The company said it held $100 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of the end of the second quarter, with a backlog of $47.5 billion. The company plans to use this financial foundation to continue investing in Starship, Starlink broadband and mobile satellites, and AI platforms.

■ Key Points to Watch in This Earnings Release

Key items to watch in the Q3 results include: ▲how closely revenue and adjusted EBITDA match market expectations ▲the extent to which AI computing contracts translate into actual revenue ▲whether Starlink subscriber growth flows through to communications segment results. In addition, the scale of capital expenditures, cash flow, and Starship development progress will serve as indicators for gauging future business prospects.

[This article is intended solely to provide information for investment reference and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific stock. Figures may vary depending on market conditions. Investment decisions and any resulting responsibility rest with the investor. AI assisted with parts of this article.]