As LIG Defense & Aerospace continues to trade slightly lower below the 500,000 won level, securities firms have projected that the company's third-quarter earnings this year will fall short of market expectations. However, with order expansion anticipated in overseas defense markets including the Middle East, positive assessments of the company's mid- to long-term growth outlook remain intact.

As of the morning of the 22nd, LIG Defense & Aerospace (079550) is trading at 495,500 won, down 3,500 won (0.70%) from the previous trading day. Sliding further from the previous day's close of 499,000 won, the gap with the 500,000 won level has widened to 4,500 won.

SK Securities forecast that LIG Defense & Aerospace's third-quarter 2026 earnings will fall below market consensus due to exchange rate fluctuations and the impact of its own development costs (research and development expenses).

However, separate from the short-term earnings burden, the brokerage maintained an optimistic view on the company's mid- to long-term growth potential driven by overseas order expansion. SK Securities projected that orders will expand from the Middle East to Southeast Asian and European markets. It focused on the possibility that the order base will broaden across overseas defense markets as a whole, rather than being confined to specific regions.

In particular, it expected both sales volume (Q) and selling prices (P) to show full-scale growth from 2028 to 2029. The analysis is that if volume growth and price increases occur simultaneously, it could have a positive impact on revenue growth. This is interpreted as placing greater weight on overseas order expansion and volume and price changes, rather than short-term quarterly earnings, as the key criteria for judging the company's long-term value.

Based on this outlook, SK Securities presented an investment opinion of 'Buy.' This judgment weighs the mid- to long-term growth outlook, despite the possibility that third-quarter earnings may fall short of expectations.

However, the overseas order expansion and the volume and price increases in 2028-2029 are brokerage projections, not confirmed results. The pace of growth may vary depending on the actual scale and timing of order contracts and the degree to which they are reflected in earnings.

In terms of the stock price, attention is focused on whether it can recover the 500,000 won level. In the short term, exchange rates and the burden of in-house development costs are key points to watch, while in the mid to long term, the key focus is whether orders expand in Middle Eastern, Southeast Asian, and European markets. Attention is on whether LIG Defense & Aerospace can go beyond its short-term earnings burden and translate overseas order expansion into actual volume growth and revenue growth.

[This article is intended to provide information for investment reference and does not recommend buying or selling any specific stock. Conditions may vary depending on market circumstances. Investment decisions and any resulting responsibility rest with the investor. AI assisted in part.]