Ondo Coin (ONDO) edged down to $0.4550, drawing attention to declining trading volume and shifting positions in the derivatives market. Ondo, a cryptocurrency tied to real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, has seen its price rise over the past month, but trading participation has contracted, raising questions about the sustainability of the short-term uptrend.

As of the morning of the 22nd, Ondo was trading at $0.4550.

Trading Volume Below Half of 30-Day Average

WawKasem, an analyst account active on the CoinMarketCap community, analyzed Ondo's price movements, trading volume, open interest, and funding rates over the past 30 days, concluding that market participation is slowing. At the time of the analysis, WawKasem cited Ondo's price at $0.4662.

Ondo rose 4.99% over the past 30 days, with a period high of $0.60482 and a low of $0.40733. The gap between the 30-day high and low was $0.19749, about 48.5% above the low. Despite the significant price swing, the key finding of the analysis is that recent trading activity has decreased compared with earlier levels.

Indeed, the average daily trading value over the last seven trading sessions was $14.06 million, only about 45% of the 30-day average of $31.3 million. In other words, trading volume over the past week fell short of even half the monthly average. The 24-hour cumulative trading value was $10.76 million, roughly 34% of the 30-day average, and also low compared with the 90-day average of $18.82 million.

The decline in trading volume can be interpreted as a sign of weakening market participation. However, reduced volume alone cannot confirm a future price decline; changes in actual trading participation must be monitored alongside price movements.

Long Position Ratio Rises While Open Interest Falls

In the derivatives market, the share of accounts holding long positions has risen relatively. According to WawKasem, the long/short account ratio rose from 1.4195 at 8 a.m. to 1.4710 at 3 p.m., before easing slightly to 1.4643. Accounts holding long positions remained more numerous than those holding shorts.

However, open interest declined. According to the analysis, open interest fell from 123.08 million tokens at 10 a.m. the previous day to 121.27 million tokens, a decrease of 1.81 million tokens, or about 1.47%. This means that although the relative share of long accounts increased, the overall size of open contracts shrank, making it difficult to directly interpret the rising long/short account ratio as new capital inflows or an increase in overall long position size.

Funding Rates Positive in 11 of 12 Settlements… One Turned Negative

Changes were also observed in funding rates. Of the last 12 four-hour settlements, 11 showed positive funding rates, with a cumulative figure of 0.0424% over the period. However, at the 4 p.m. settlement on the day of the analysis, the rate came in at minus 0.0008%, marking a one-time turn to negative after a sustained positive run.

Funding rates are fees paid between long and short positions in perpetual futures markets. Generally, with positive funding rates, long position holders pay short position holders, and vice versa with negative rates. Still, a single negative reading alone does not indicate a change in market direction; subsequent funding rate trends and open interest changes must be confirmed together.

Buy and Sell Order Sizes on the Order Book Nearly Balanced

On the order book, buy and sell orders showed relatively similar sizes. WawKasem explained that the spread between bid and ask prices was 0.021%, with approximately $261,000 in buy orders and $282,000 in sell orders placed within 1% of the mid-price. Although sell orders exceeded buy orders by about $21,000, this order distribution alone cannot confirm the strength of actual selling pressure, since displayed orders can be modified or canceled before execution.

Short-Term Watch Points

Ondo's current price of $0.4550 is about 2.40% below the $0.4662 cited at the time of the analysis. However, since the two prices were observed at different times, this cannot be interpreted as the official daily change. At the current price, a rise of about 1.10% is needed to reach $0.46, and about 9.89% to reach $0.50. Conversely, the current price is about 10.48% above the 30-day low of $0.40733 cited in the analysis.

Key short-term watch points for Ondo include whether trading volume recovers, changes in open interest, and funding rate movements. In particular, whether actual trading participation expands while the share of long-position accounts remains high is of interest. Market watchers are focused on whether the contraction in trading volume will continue and whether position changes in the derivatives market will translate into price volatility.

[This article is intended to provide information for investment reference purposes and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific asset. Conditions may vary depending on market circumstances. Investment decisions and any resulting responsibility rest with the investor. AI provided some assistance.]