Solana's (SOL) price movements and network technology changes are simultaneously drawing attention in the cryptocurrency market. Technical analysis has identified $104 as a key price level, while focus is also turning to the Alpenglow upgrade, which will overhaul the consensus algorithm.

■ Holding the $104 'POC' Is Key... Target Price of $116.5

On the 22nd, Jonnyvmitchell, an active member of the CoinMarketCap community, noted that Solana has recently been trading above a price zone of concentrated trading volume around $104. The $104 level he cited is the Point of Control (POC) in the volume profile, meaning the price at which the most trading occurred. Because it is a level where market participants' trades were concentrated, it is used as a benchmark for judging future price movements.

Jonnyvmitchell analyzed that if Solana holds this price level, it could attempt further gains. His upside target of $116.5 corresponds to the Value Area High (VAH), the upper boundary of the volume value area. The price difference between $104 and $116.5 is $12.5, which translates to a gain of approximately 12.02%. However, this is merely a simple calculation between the two prices and does not mean an actual rise is confirmed.

■ Alpenglow Upgrade... Targets 150-Millisecond Transaction Finality

Separately from the price outlook, a technical change that will restructure Solana's network is also drawing attention. TradeDiviner, a CoinMarketCap community member, introduced the Alpenglow upgrade schedule on the 21st. According to the post, Alpenglow was scheduled to be activated at epoch 1064 on the mainnet around 1:20 p.m. UTC on October 21, which corresponds to 10:20 p.m. Korean time on the same day.

The core of Alpenglow is transitioning from the existing TowerBFT-based validator voting system to a certificate-based approach. The goal is to overhaul the existing consensus procedure and reduce the time required for transaction finality. The design goal introduced in the post is approximately 150 milliseconds, a significant reduction compared to the existing finality time of 12.8 seconds cited as a benchmark.

However, the 150 milliseconds is a protocol-level target figure, not performance verified on the actual mainnet. Separate confirmation is needed on whether the upgrade has been completed and how much performance improvement has actually materialized on the network.

■ Gradual Transition Across Multiple Slots... No Action Needed for Ordinary Holders

The transition process was also not described as one where all changes are applied at once at a specific point in time. The post stated that the transition will proceed across multiple slots after the start of the epoch. Validator operators must verify the software corresponding to the new voting system and related requirements. In contrast, ordinary SOL holders do not need to take any separate actions in their wallets due to the upgrade.

■ Price and Technology Must Be Judged Separately

In the Solana market, these two variables—price and network technology—are being discussed simultaneously. In terms of short-term price, the key observation is whether Solana maintains the volume-concentrated zone around $104. In terms of technology, whether Alpenglow is actually implemented and its performance afterward must be confirmed.

In particular, technical efforts to improve network processing performance do not necessarily translate into a rise in the SOL price. The technical achievements of the upgrade and market price movements need to be judged separately.

[This article is for informational purposes only to aid investment decisions and does not recommend buying or selling any specific asset. Content may vary depending on market conditions. Investment decisions and their consequences are the responsibility of the investor. AI provided partial assistance.]