As Ripple (XRP) moves above the $1.30 mark, the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 (local time) is being cited as a key variable for its future price trajectory. Some forecasts suggest that a Republican defeat in Congress could work positively for XRP's price, while uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency regulation remains a burden.

◆ XRP Trading at $1.32... Market Focus on Midterms and FOMC

According to cryptocurrency media outlet CoinGape on the 27th (local time), XRP traded around $1.32, staying above $1.30. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market rose 0.58% over 24 hours to $2.69 trillion. Investors are adjusting their positions ahead of the midterm elections.

This week, the market is also focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Fed will hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 27-28 (local time), with the interest rate decision to be announced on the 28th (local time).

Meanwhile, U.S. First Lady Melania Trump said on the 27th (local time) that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine had taken effect. The agreement allows humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation in the Oleshky region, but it is not an agreement to end the war across Ukraine.

◆ Expectations of 'Stronger Checks' If Republicans Lose vs. Regulatory Uncertainty

CoinGape analyzed that if Republicans lose the U.S. midterm elections, the fate of cryptocurrency-related bills could change. However, it noted that the election results would not immediately translate into a rise in XRP's price.

According to CoinGape, a Republican defeat could work positively for XRP if investors view stronger congressional checks on White House policy favorably, improving risk-asset investment sentiment across the market. Conversely, if congressional power is divided, negotiations over cryptocurrency bills could become more complicated, potentially increasing regulatory uncertainty.

The flow of political funds from the industry is also drawing attention. CoinGape reported that cryptocurrency industry groups contributed approximately $176 million to more than 100 candidates, including both Democratic and Republican candidates, in these midterm elections. Ripple is cited as one of the major funding companies in the cryptocurrency industry. Accordingly, the election results could significantly influence future digital asset policy. In particular, the stalled CLARITY Act was mentioned as an example showing that upcoming congressional negotiations could determine the direction of cryptocurrency regulation.

◆ '9 Count' Buy Signal Spotted... Key Price at $1.25

Analyses have emerged that new rebound signals have been spotted on the XRP price chart. According to CoinGape, cryptocurrency analyst Ali stated that a '9 count' buy signal appeared around $1.299 on XRP's 3-day chart. On that chart, after similar past signals, gains of 31.26%, 24.38%, and 18.65% occurred respectively, with a separate rebound of 71.88% also recorded.

Ali explained on his X account on the 27th (local time) that the TD Sequential indicator showed a buy signal on XRP's 3-day chart. He analyzed that this signal deserves attention, given that after three similar past signals, rebounds of 31%, 24%, and 18% respectively followed.

However, Ali identified $1.25 as the key price that will determine XRP's future price movement. He forecast that if XRP holds above $1.25, it could rebound to $1.40, but if it loses that level amid continued profit-taking by whale investors, it could fall to $0.98.

CoinGape reported that a new 9-count signal appeared as XRP underwent a correction after its recent recovery. This trend is drawing attention to the possibility of an additional rebound, but CoinGape added that past gains do not guarantee the same outcome this time.

◆ Whale Wallet Holdings Share at Highest Since November 2022

The share held by whale wallets holding large amounts of XRP has also increased significantly. According to the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, cited by CoinGape, wallets holding at least 10 million XRP collectively held 46.87 billion XRP. These wallets hold approximately 68.5% of the total supply, the highest share since November 2022 (local time).

CoinGape explained that as large wallets' XRP holdings have increased over a long period, holdings are becoming more concentrated among a small number of large holders.

◆ RSI at 58.70, CMF at 0.11... Upward Targets of $1.35, $1.40, and $1.45

Technical indicators are also fueling talk of XRP's potential for further rebound. According to CoinGape, XRP fell to around $1.26 before recovering to the $1.32 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 58.70, above the neutral baseline of 50. This shows upward momentum strengthening, though it has not reached the traditional overbought threshold of 70.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which shows buying and selling money flows, recorded 0.11. The 20-period indicator also recently turned positive after escaping negative territory. CoinGape analyzed that these indicators show strengthening buying pressure, supporting the recovery seen on the price chart.

Upward price targets were set at $1.35, $1.40, and $1.45. The first upward target presented by CoinGape is $1.35, about 2% above the price at the time. If XRP maintains closes above $1.35 on the 4-hour chart, the likelihood of another attempt at $1.40 increases, according to the analysis. Reaching $1.40 would represent a gain of about 6% from the price at the time, and that level is cited as the next major resistance. CoinGape projected that if XRP breaks through both the $1.35 and $1.40 resistance levels, it could attempt further gains toward its previous trading range around $1.45.

Conversely, $1.30 was identified as a short-term support level in the event of a decline, as several recent candles formed around that price. CoinGape analyzed that if XRP closes below $1.30 on the 4-hour chart, the rebound could weaken and it could fall back toward its recent low of around $1.26.

[This article is by no means investment advice. The content may merely reflect opinions, so please do not use it as a reference or material for investment. All investments are made at each individual's own judgment, and the final responsibility lies with the investor. This publication assumes no responsibility whatsoever.]