OCI Holdings surged more than 10%, closing in on the 200,000-won mark. Ahead of the US midterm elections, the possibility of changes in renewable energy policy combined with rising non-Chinese polysilicon prices is acting as a driver for the stock's rally. Notably, Mirae Asset Securities maintained its top pick opinion on the company within the sector despite lowering its target price.

On the 4th, OCI Holdings (010060) was trading at 199,600 won, up 18,400 won from the previous session, a gain of 10.15%.

◆ Q3 Operating Profit of 68 Billion Won... Below Market Expectations

According to an analysis released by Mirae Asset Securities on the 30th of last month, OCI Holdings posted an operating profit of 68 billion won in the third quarter of this year. This is about 14% below the market forecast of 79 billion won. The underperformance was attributed to a delay in recognizing revenue from the sale of power generation assets.

An earnings improvement is expected in the fourth quarter. Mirae Asset Securities' Q4 operating profit forecast is 98.1 billion won, close to the market estimate of 98.3 billion won and roughly 44% higher than the third quarter. Increased polysilicon sales volume by OCITS was cited as the factor driving the earnings recovery.

◆ Target Price Lowered from 460,000 to 400,000 Won... "Top Pick and Aggressive Buy Zone" Maintained

Mirae Asset Securities cut its target price for OCI Holdings from the previous 460,000 won to 400,000 won, reflecting a weaker won-dollar exchange rate and a roughly 12% downward revision of its 2027 operating profit forecast. However, the core direction of its investment opinion remained unchanged. Mirae Asset Securities presented OCI Holdings as its top pick in the sector and evaluated the stock price level at the time as an aggressive buying opportunity.

◆ Non-Chinese Polysilicon Prices Rise Three Times in Six Weeks

Mirae Asset Securities paid particular attention to movements in non-Chinese polysilicon prices, which had shown little change since early August when measures related to Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act were announced, but have risen three times in the past six weeks. This means price changes have begun to appear in the non-Chinese polysilicon market, which is considered a driver of OCI Holdings' stock price gains.

The implementation of the minimum import price (MIP) and the ending tariff, scheduled for December 4, was also cited as a key variable. Mirae Asset Securities projected that as policies supporting expanded US production and enforcement rules for the minimum import price become concrete, additional upward pressure on non-Chinese polysilicon prices could emerge. It also assessed the US midterm elections and the release of PFE's final guidance as factors that could affect the stock price through the end of the year.

◆ US Midterm Elections as a Variable for Solar Policy

As forecasts point to a Democratic victory in the congressional elections, attention is also focusing on the policy environment surrounding the renewable energy industry. Democrats have traditionally made fostering the clean energy industry and responding to climate change key policy priorities. However, how this election's outcome will affect US solar support policies or the performance of related companies remains to be seen through the subsequent legislative and policy enforcement processes.

For OCI Holdings, price changes in the non-Chinese polysilicon market stand out as a key variable alongside the US political environment.

◆ 400 Won Shy of 200,000... Market Focuses on Whether It Will Break Through

With a double-digit gain recorded today, market attention is focused on whether the stock will break the 200,000-won level. The current price of 199,600 won is just 400 won below 200,000 won. However, no direct causal relationship has been confirmed between the US midterm election results and today's stock surge.

Going forward, non-Chinese polysilicon prices, US trade policy, and whether Q4 earnings improve are expected to be the main factors to watch in the stock's trajectory.

[Securities firms' target prices and earnings forecasts may differ from actual results, and this does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific stock. Some AI assistance was used, and investment decisions and any resulting responsibility lie with the investor.]