As U.S. biotech company Moderna (MRNA) approaches its third-quarter earnings release, attention is focused on market forecasts of declining revenue and continued losses. The market expects COVID-19 vaccines to account for a significant portion of sales, but total revenue is projected to fall compared with the same period last year.

■ Revenue Forecast at $888.8 Million... Per-Share Net Loss Expected to Widen

According to U.S. investment information firm Zacks on the 4th, the market consensus for Moderna's third-quarter 2026 revenue is approximately $888.8 million, down about 12.5% from the same period a year earlier. Analysts expect a loss per share (EPS) of negative $1.37, indicating continued deficits. In the third quarter of last year, the per-share net loss was $0.51, meaning the projected net loss per share has widened by $0.86 compared with this year's estimate.

■ COVID-19 Vaccine Remains Main Revenue Source... Flu and RSV Vaccines Are Variables

Zacks expects the COVID-19 vaccine to once again serve as Moderna's primary revenue source this quarter. Sales of existing vaccine products are expected to support results, but whether they can reverse the projected overall revenue decline remains to be seen.

The flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine businesses are also drawing attention. However, the new flu vaccine and RSV vaccine are assessed as facing difficulties in the commercialization process. Whether expanded product sales translate into actual revenue growth is cited as a key variable for judging future performance, and with revenue heavily dependent on the COVID-19 vaccine, the earnings contribution of other vaccine products is critical.

■ Up From Q2... But Too Early to Interpret as Growth

Moderna previously recorded second-quarter revenue of $145 million and a per-share net loss of $1.97 this year. While projected third-quarter revenue represents a sharp increase from the previous quarter, it is difficult to interpret this directly as sustained growth, as vaccine businesses can see quarter-to-quarter revenue differences depending on seasonal demand and product sales timing.

Changes in market estimates are also worth noting. According to Zacks, the consensus for Moderna's third-quarter EPS has been revised down 2.64% over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts' profitability outlooks have turned more conservative ahead of the earnings release.

If Zacks' forecast holds, Moderna is expected to fall short of achieving final profitability in the third quarter. However, per-share net loss projections alone cannot determine the scale of operating losses or cash flow, so actual results should also be examined for cost items such as R&D expenses and selling, general and administrative expenses.

■ Release Before Market Open on the 6th... Three Points to Watch

Moderna is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results before the opening of the New York Stock Exchange on the 6th, local U.S. time. In this release, it will be necessary to check whether the company achieves the projected revenue of $888.8 million and whether the actual per-share net loss widens or narrows compared with market forecasts. Along with COVID-19 vaccine sales, the revenue contribution of flu and RSV vaccines is also expected to be an important benchmark.

Even if actual results exceed estimates, it would be difficult to evaluate this directly as a full-fledged profitability recovery, as future revenue outlooks and cost management performance must also be reviewed. The current market estimates show that Moderna faces the challenges of declining revenue and continued losses, and this third-quarter earnings release is expected to serve as an opportunity to verify the revenue-sustaining capacity of its existing vaccine business and the business performance of new products.

[This article was written with partial AI assistance based on earnings forecast materials. Projected results may differ from final results, and investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the investor.]