With the release of the U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index approaching, the cryptocurrency market is once again on high alert over macroeconomic variables. As a key inflation indicator that could gauge the direction of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy was released, Ripple (XRP) has reached a critical juncture. The success or failure of defending the $1.13 key support level is expected to determine its future trend.

■ PCE Rises 4.1%... Inflation Wariness Persists

According to the announcement by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on June 25 (Korean time), the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-on-year. Core PCE, excluding energy and food, was tallied at a 3.4% increase. Considering that the previous April PCE growth rate was 3.8%, the atmosphere suggests that the market's vigilance regarding inflation pressure remains deep.

PCE is one of the most important inflation indicators referenced by the Fed in the process of determining the benchmark interest rate. Accordingly, investors are keeping a close eye on the possibility of future changes in interest rate policy, the trend of the dollar's value, and shifts in risk appetite.

■ XRP Faces $1.13 'Fateful Crossroads' Amid Correction Phase

Amid such a macroeconomic environment, XRP is continuing its correction pattern following a recent short-term rally. The market technically evaluates the most important price level to be $1.13. This section is a key support line that has confirmed its holding power several times over the past few months, and the dominant analysis is that it is a turning point that will decide the medium-term trend.

XRP previously rose to around $1.29, which was discussed as the target zone of a double bottom pattern, but profit-taking sell-offs emerged afterward, shifting it to a downward trend. Having even broken away from the $1.18–$1.19 support zone formed during the upward process, short-term investment sentiment has somewhat contracted.

■ External Variables Also at Play... Volatility Expected to Continue

External factors are also influencing the market. There are still expectations in the market that if ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran progress, international oil prices and financial market anxieties could ease, leading to a recovery in risk appetite.

Combined with this, the market consensus is that the possibility of additional tightening by the Fed and the schedule for upcoming economic indicator releases will likely sustain volatility in the cryptocurrency market for the time being.

[This article was written with the assistance of AI. This article does not constitute investment advice, and any losses resulting from cryptocurrency investments may be borne by the investor.]