As of June 23 (local time), the price of Ripple (XRP) is showing weakness. According to the overseas crypto media outlet Coingape, despite positive news such as Ripple securing a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license in Luxembourg for European market entry, the price failed to break its downward trend. In particular, XRP fell below the $1.12 level, which was considered a key support line.

Ripple announced on this day that it obtained a CASP license in Luxembourg ahead of the implementation deadline (July 1) of MiCA, the European cryptocurrency regulatory framework. Coingape reported that through this, Ripple has been able to expand its business in the European Economic Area (EEA) market. In fact, according to Coingape citing a Kaiko Research report, the cryptocurrency trading volume in the European Economic Area is expected to reach $420 billion in 2025. Ripple was included in the list of companies that can continue their business in the European market even after the implementation of MiCA regulations. Meanwhile, Tether withdrew from the European market, and Binance is reportedly facing difficulties in the compliance process.

Broad Market Weakness and Broken Support Lines Nevertheless, the XRP price failed to rise. The overall market weakness, driven by Bitcoin's price falling to $62,000, had a significant impact. During this process, approximately $100 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire cryptocurrency market.

The price decline has also dimmed previous bullish forecasts. Coingape explained that in a prior analysis, it suggested the possibility of up to a 17% gain as an ascending triangle pattern formed, but the bullish scenario was invalidated as the price dropped below $1.12. XRP had maintained the $1.12 support line for about two weeks since June 7, attracting buying pressure on rebounds, but the recent decline shows that investors' willingness to buy is waning.

According to Coingape, the next major support line is the low of $1.05 recorded on June 6. If this level is breached, there is a high possibility of testing the psychological support line of $1. Technical indicators are also signaling bearishness. The red bars in the negative territory of the Awesome Oscillator (AO) are expanding, indicating strengthening selling pressure, and the MACD line is also positioned below the signal line, suggesting that $1.12 will act as a resistance level.

Institutional Capital Inflow vs. Expanded Short Selling in Derivatives However, different movements of institutional capital were also captured in the spot market. Over the past two days, $7.8 million flowed into the spot XRP ETF. During the same period, $158 million flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs, leading to analysis that some institutional funds are shifting toward Ripple-related products.

On the other hand, the proportion of short selling is expanding in the derivatives market. According to Coingape citing Coinglass data, XRP experienced $8.83 million in long position liquidations over the past 24 hours. Due to these liquidations and the price decline, Open Interest decreased to $2.57 billion, marking a 5.41% drop over 24 hours.

Bets by short sellers have also increased. XRP's long-to-short ratio fell to 0.89, meaning there are more short positions than long positions. Coingape pointed out that the ratio has remained below 1 for nine consecutive days, indicating that market sentiment is leaning bearish. However, it added that even amid this trend, if an unexpected price rebound occurs, the possibility of a 'short squeeze,' where short sellers rush to close their positions, remains open.

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