Bitcoin is gauging its future direction between two massive variables: artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment and a potential U.S.–Iran war. As warnings emerge that the enormous debt poured into AI data center construction could spill over into financial market instability, the possibility of expanded volatility in the cryptocurrency market is being raised amid the simultaneous progression of military tensions and ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East.

Fears of an 'AI Credit Bubble'… Parallels to the 2008 Financial Crisis

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, in his recently published essay 'Situationship,' characterized the AI investment boom not as a repeat of the 2000 dot-com bubble, but as a credit expansion problem on par with the 2008 financial crisis. His analysis suggests that rather than the performance of AI companies themselves, the loans extended to build data centers and power generation facilities could become the weakest link in the financial system.

Hayes predicted that if the growth rate of AI data center construction slows, the insolvencies of companies and financial institutions that relied on excessive borrowing will surface. His logic is that if the U.S. government and central bank subsequently step in to defend the financial system by supplying massive liquidity, the value of the dollar would be diluted, potentially making Bitcoin one of the greatest beneficiary assets. He argued that if this scenario materializes, Bitcoin could surpass $1 million in the long term.

Short-Term Correction Risk Remains… 'Could Drop to $50,000'

However, Hayes does not believe the rally will begin immediately. He expects Bitcoin to trade sideways in the $60,000–$70,000 range for the time being and left open the possibility of a decline to around $50,000 if market shocks intensify. The $50,000 figure is not a definitive price target but rather the potential downside range he presented.

On the afternoon of the 5th, Korean time, Bitcoin traded at around $64,130. The intraday price moved between $63,403 and $64,446. The current price falls within the $60,000–$70,000 range where Hayes suggested a bottom could form.

U.S.–Iran War's Contrasting Effects on Bitcoin

The U.S.–Iran war dynamic is a critical variable when evaluating Hayes's outlook. The conflict between the two nations began on February 28 and has persisted for over five months, with Iran restricting most vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. maintaining a blockade on Iran-related ports and ships. This strait is a critical energy chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally pass.

If the war escalates again, disrupting strait transit and driving up international oil prices, it could have contrasting effects on Bitcoin. In the initial phase of a conflict, investors may reduce their exposure to risk assets, causing Bitcoin to decline alongside equities. Conversely, if rising oil prices increase the power and operating costs of AI data centers and expand U.S. inflationary and fiscal burdens, it could reinforce the long-term logic of AI credit instability and liquidity supply that Hayes anticipates.

Naturally, this is merely an interpretation of Hayes's analysis applied to a war scenario and does not guarantee actual market movements.

Negotiations vs. Escalation… 'Not Yet at a Confirmed Ceasefire Stage'

The current war situation is a phase where the possibilities of both escalation and negotiation coexist. President Trump stated on the 5th that discussions with Iran are progressing and that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon. Qatar and Oman have also stepped in to mediate, but Iran has indicated that an agreement could be delayed as long as U.S. threats persist. A ceasefire or the reopening of the strait is not yet confirmed.

The U.S. military burden is also growing as the conflict turns into a prolonged war. Reports indicate that the U.S. has expended a significant portion of its ATACMS and PrSM long-range precision-guided missile stockpiles in the Iran campaign, and has also used nearly half of its entire Tomahawk cruise missile inventory. While the White House and the U.S. Department of Defense maintain that they possess sufficient military capabilities, the cost of replenishing weapons and the fiscal burden from a protracted war are factors the market must monitor.

Key Points to Watch Going Forward

Bitcoin's short-term direction is likely to be influenced by the outcome of U.S.–Iran negotiations, international oil prices, and risk-asset investment sentiment. Over the medium to long term, whether defaults or insolvencies actually materialize in AI data center-related loans, and whether the U.S. government steps in with bailouts or new liquidity injections, will be the core conditions determining the validity of Hayes's forecast.

The trajectory of 'correcting to $50,000 before rising to $1 million' is not a predetermined future but a personal projection based on multiple assumptions. If the war intensifies or credit markets are shaken, Bitcoin could face strong selling pressure first, and even if liquidity is subsequently supplied, there is no guarantee it will climb to a specific price level.

[※ This article is intended to provide information on the virtual asset market and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific asset. Bitcoin prices can fluctuate sharply due to war, interest rates, liquidity, regulation, and investor sentiment, and investors may lose their entire principal.]