A new analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has recently behaved more like gold than U.S. tech stocks. The interpretation is that amid bond market jitters, a weakening dollar, and inflows into spot ETFs, Bitcoin showed a pattern closer to 'digital gold' than a risk asset.

■ Weekly Surge of 22.4%... Strongest Rally Since March 2024

VinCooooper, active in the CoinMarketCap community, analyzed that Bitcoin's August upward trend is better compared to gold price movements than to tech stock rallies.

According to VinCooooper, as bond selling continued through late August, Bitcoin rose 22.4% in one week — the strongest weekly gain since March 2024. During the same period, gold prices rose about 5%, while U.S. stock markets were relatively sluggish.

■ 90-Day Correlation With Gold at High Levels Not Seen Since 2020

Notably, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to its highest level since 2020. Typically, Bitcoin tends to move with high-risk assets such as tech stocks, but this time it moved in a different direction from the stock market.

VinCooooper cited rising long-term Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs as the background for this shift. According to the analysis, roughly $290 million per day flowed into Bitcoin ETFs at the height of the rally. This suggests that amid bond market instability and a falling dollar, Bitcoin acted not merely as a risk asset but as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.

■ "Correlation With S&P 500 Near Zero"... Whether Decoupling Persists Is a Key Variable

However, some pointed out that it remains to be seen whether this trend will last. Citing Glassnode analysis, VinCooooper explained that during the rally, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 approached zero, meaning the synchronization between the two assets weakened significantly.

That said, past episodes of decoupling between Bitcoin and the stock market during Treasury market turmoil were often temporary rather than sustained, which was cited as a variable.

■ Long-Term Holders' Selling Zone at '$83,000–$86,000'... Accumulation Zone at '$62,000–$65,000'

Price levels were also discussed as key points for judging future direction. Based on Bitcoin trading around $77,600, VinCooooper assessed the $83,000–$86,000 range as an area where selling pressure from long-term holders could emerge, while the $62,000–$65,000 range was presented as a major accumulation zone.

■ Whether Bitcoin Becomes Established as 'Digital Gold' Is the Key Question

Ultimately, the analysis concludes that the key question is whether Bitcoin will maintain its synchronization with gold and continue moving independently of U.S. stock markets. If Bitcoin continues to track gold and its correlation with the stock market stays low, the view of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' could gain strength.

Conversely, if the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks rises again, August's movement may be interpreted not as a structural change but as a special, temporary phase created by the bond market, the dollar, and ETF fund flows. Accordingly, beyond Bitcoin's short-term price, its correlation with gold, its synchronization with U.S. stocks, and spot ETF fund flows are cited as major variables for gauging the market's future character.

[Note: This article was written to provide information about the cryptocurrency market and does not recommend buying or selling any specific virtual asset or guarantee investment returns. Price forecasts, support and resistance levels, and target prices mentioned in the article are scenarios based on technical analysis by market participants and may unfold differently from actual price movements. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets with extreme price volatility, and investors may lose part or all of their principal. Investment decisions and their consequences rest solely with the investor, so please fully review market conditions and relevant information before investing. This article was written with AI assistance.]