The temperature gap in the cryptocurrency market is widening. Major coins by market capitalization such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP are moving within a narrow range, while small- and mid-cap altcoins are repeatedly posting double-digit surges and drops within a single day, making market instability increasingly evident.

◆ Large-cap coins 'standing still'... altcoins see double-digit swings

On the 24-hour trading volume-based cryptocurrency heatmap on the 3rd, gainers and losers were mixed. XRP rose 0.75%, while Bitcoin and Ethereum climbed 0.30% and 0.06%, respectively. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) fell 0.22%, showing divergent directions even among major coins.

Price volatility deepened among small- and mid-cap coins. Ankr (ANKR) surged 12.09%, while Arbitrum (ARB) gained 8.19% and Hive (HIVE) rose 4.93%. On the downside, Threshold (T) dropped 14.93% and Bonk (BONK) fell 11.90%. Sophon (SOPH) also slipped 8.35%, Seekr (SKR) 7.45%, and Flock (FLOCK) 4.73%.

In effect, a coin-by-coin market environment has strengthened, in which individual coins' supply-demand dynamics and catalysts, rather than overall market direction, determine prices.

◆ Fed ahead of September FOMC... rate decision hinges on 'data'

Outside the coin market, the direction of U.S. monetary policy is emerging as another variable. Ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15-16, views within the Fed on future interest rates have not yet tilted in one direction.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on the 3rd that recent inflation trends show signs of disinflation, and indicated he could support keeping rates at current levels if upcoming data confirm this trend. Conversely, he noted that if August inflation comes in strong again, further rate hikes could be considered. Ultimately, economic indicators released before the next FOMC are increasingly likely to become the key variable in the rate decision.

For cryptocurrencies, U.S. interest rates are a variable that determines liquidity conditions and risk appetite. If market rates rise again or expectations of further tightening strengthen, funding costs and dollar strength pressures could weigh on risk assets broadly. Conversely, if expectations of a rate freeze strengthen and tightening fears ease, the burden on investment sentiment could relatively diminish.

◆ Iran war and oil prices, another risk

The problem is an environment in which judging market direction by monetary policy alone is difficult. As military conflict between the United States and Iran intensifies again, geopolitical risk is affecting financial markets across the board. After the U.S. recently attacked Iran's air defense systems, radar, and maritime-related facilities, Iran also responded with missiles and drones, expanding the conflict once more. On the 3rd, international oil prices also rose to their highest level in six weeks, reflecting supply uncertainty in the Middle East.

For the coin market, another concern is that if the war drags on and energy prices climb further, it could affect U.S. inflation trends and the Fed's rate decisions. If geopolitical shock raises inflation pressure through higher oil prices, the Fed may find it difficult to easily ease its monetary tightening stance.

◆ Large-cap coins 'defending' vs altcoins 'swinging'... four things to watch

As a result, the current market is difficult to characterize as a simple risk-on or risk-off environment. With geopolitical tensions and U.S. rate uncertainty coexisting, large-cap coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing relatively strong price resilience, while small- and mid-cap altcoins are repeatedly experiencing wide swings driven by shifts in supply and demand.

Notably, the appearance of coins including Bonk posting daily declines of 7-14% shows that felt volatility in the altcoin market is far higher than in major coins.

For the time being, the cryptocurrency market requires watching: △price movements of major coins such as Bitcoin △future U.S. rate decisions △changes in economic indicators △whether the U.S.-Iran military conflict escalates, along with international oil price trends. It is also hard to rule out a continued market environment in which, rather than a single external variable moving the entire market in the same direction, gains and losses diverge widely depending on each coin's liquidity and supply-demand differences.

[※ This article was written for the purpose of providing information about the cryptocurrency market and does not recommend buying or selling specific virtual assets or guarantee investment returns. Price forecasts, support and resistance levels, and target prices mentioned in the article are scenarios based on technical analysis by market participants and may unfold differently from actual price movements. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets with extreme price volatility, and you may lose part or all of your investment principal. Investment decisions and their consequences rest with the investor, so please fully review market conditions and relevant information before investing. This article was written with AI assistance.]