The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold prices has approached its highest level in the past six years. Analysts note that the price movements of the two assets, which had often moved in different directions for some time, are once again converging.

■ 90-Day Rolling Correlation Rises to 0.50

TEKT0NIC, a member of the CoinMarketCap community, cited Bitwise data presented by Bloomberg, reporting that as of the 31st of last month, the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and spot gold prices had risen to approximately 0.50. According to the analysis, this is the highest level since the sharp rise in correlation observed in 2020.

The correlation coefficient is an indicator of how closely two assets' prices move in the same direction. A value close to 1 means the movements strongly match, while a value near 0 indicates no clear relationship. Negative values indicate a stronger tendency to move in opposite directions.

This figure draws attention because it differs from the trend of recent years. From 2022 to 2025, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold remained near 0 for extended periods and even dipped into negative territory. However, with the recent 90-day correlation coefficient climbing to around 0.50, the movements of the two assets have become considerably more aligned than before.

■ At the Upper End of the 'Low Correlation' Range… Premature to Overinterpret

That said, a correlation coefficient of 0.50 is difficult to interpret as the two assets moving like one and the same asset. The Bitwise analysis cited by TEKT0NIC explained that correlation coefficients between -0.50 and 0.50 can traditionally be regarded as a range of low or unclear correlation. The current figure is approaching the upper end of that range.

■ Macroeconomic Variables Underpin the Correlation

Some in the market argue that macroeconomic variables deserve attention as one factor behind the convergence of the two assets. The value of the dollar, the interest rate environment, and market perceptions of currency values can simultaneously affect sentiment toward both gold and Bitcoin investments, potentially causing the two assets to move in similar directions.

The opposite scenario is also possible. If the correlation has strengthened due to the same macroeconomic factors, it cannot be ruled out that gold and Bitcoin could come under pressure simultaneously if related investment demand weakens.

■ Correlation ≠ Causation… Too Early to Call It 'Digital Gold'

In particular, it should be noted that correlation does not imply causation between the two assets. A rising correlation coefficient does not mean one can conclude that gold prices are pulling Bitcoin up or that Bitcoin is driving gold prices. It is also too early to assess, based on this figure alone, that Bitcoin has fully established itself as so-called 'digital gold.'

Nevertheless, the fact that the 90-day price movements of Bitcoin and gold are approaching their closest level since 2020 can be viewed as one indicator for examining the influence of macroeconomic variables on the recent Bitcoin market.

Whether the correlation coefficient will rise further beyond 0.50 or fall again is expected to be a key point to watch in judging whether the convergence of the two assets will persist.

[※ This article is intended to provide information about the cryptocurrency market and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific virtual asset or guarantee investment returns. Price forecasts, support and resistance levels, and target prices mentioned in the article are scenarios based on technical analysis by market participants and may unfold differently from actual price movements. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets with extreme price volatility, and investors may lose part or all of their principal. Investment decisions and the responsibility for them rest solely with the investor, so please fully review market conditions and relevant information before investing. This article was written with AI assistance.]