With Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $79,972, market attention is focused on the possibility of it reclaiming $85,000. Overseas crypto media outlet CoinGape predicted that while risk appetite in the virtual asset market is reviving, several variables will determine whether Bitcoin rises further.

■ Broad Market Strength... Fear and Greed Index at 75, in 'Greed' Territory

According to CoinGape, the overall virtual asset market rose 0.98%, with total market capitalization standing at $2.72 trillion. Among major altcoins, Solana (SOL) posted the largest gain, up 4.07% at $106.57, while Ethereum (ETH) rose 2.02% to $2,502.82. Ripple (XRP) climbed 1.23% to $1.42, and Binance Coin (BNB) gained 0.60% to $757.21.

According to CoinMarketCap data cited by CoinGape, the Fear and Greed Index stood at 75, placing it in 'Greed' territory. CoinGape explained that this figure shows that investor confidence and greed levels are high across the market. It noted that if altcoins continue their strength, it could be a sign that investors remain willing to take risks in the virtual asset market.

■ Three Variables That Will Decide the Break Above $85,000

CoinGape reported that there are several variables that will determine whether Bitcoin, which has recently continued its recovery, can push above $85,000.

First, the cloture vote on the CLARITY Act expected in the U.S. Senate on the 15th (local time). CoinGape said that if the bill advances, it would take a step further toward establishing a clear digital asset regulatory framework, helping boost market confidence. The bill contains provisions dividing the regulatory jurisdictions of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On the other hand, CoinGape believes that if the bill's discussion does not progress, the market's upward momentum could weaken, and expectations for comprehensive U.S. virtual asset regulation could also be delayed.

Second, U.S. monetary policy. According to CoinGape, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to hold a meeting on the 15th and 16th (local time), with economic projections also expected. Monetary policy was cited as a variable that could increase Bitcoin price volatility.

Third, institutional demand. According to CoinGape, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $175 million on the 4th (local time), marking three consecutive days of net inflows. CoinGape reported that BlackRock's IBIT received $117 million and Fidelity $57.22 million.

■ Ethereum ETFs Also See Net Inflows... 'Institutional Demand Not Limited to Bitcoin'

Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded a net inflow of $26.46 million. CoinGape said this signals that institutional demand for virtual assets is not limited to Bitcoin. BlackRock's ETHA saw an inflow of $57.79 million, while other ETFs received $16.44 million.

■ 'If It Rises Above $79,500, Retest of $82,000 → Up to $85,000'

According to Kalshi data cited by CoinGape, the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $85,000 before October 2 (local time) stands at 77%. CoinGape noted that from the current price, an additional rise of about 6.3% would be needed to reach that level.

According to CoinGape's Bitcoin outlook, if the price rises further above $79,500, there is a possibility it will retest $82,000. CoinGape then forecast that if it breaks above $82,000, the upward momentum could extend to $85,000.

[This article is by no means investment advice. The content may merely reflect opinions, so please do not use it as a reference or material for investment. All investments are made by each individual's own judgment, and the final responsibility lies with the investor. This publication assumes no responsibility whatsoever.]