Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting a short-term rebound in the low $77,000 range. However, analysts note that considering trading volume and moving average alignment, it is still too early to judge that the trend has fully recovered.

As of the 13th, on the Binance one-hour chart, Bitcoin was trading at $77,244.54, about 0.10% above the day's opening price of $77,170. Over the past seven days, the price has ranged between $77,059.75 and $77,505.67.

Looking at recent movements, Bitcoin was pushed down to around $77,060 before rebounding, but has yet to reach its seven-day high in the $77,500 range. While the low has been defended, an upward breakout through resistance has not yet followed.

■ RSI Returns to Neutral Zone... MACD Remains Negative

Technical indicators are also showing no clear direction. The RSI(6) stands at 48.98, up from the previous 36.33. It has escaped the oversold zone but now sits in neutral territory, tilted toward neither overbought nor oversold.

The MACD recorded a DIF of -51.87, DEA of -41.71, and histogram of -10.16. Following a recent dead cross, the negative width of the histogram has narrowed, confirming some easing of bearish pressure. However, the indicator itself remains in negative territory, making it difficult to say short-term momentum has firmly recovered.

■ Bearish Moving Average Alignment Persists... Supertrend Maintains Uptrend at $77,021

A bearish alignment continues among moving averages. MA7 stands at $77,229.93, MA25 at $77,271.01, and MA99 at $77,833.42. As the current price remains below the long-term MA99, it is necessary to distinguish between a short-term rebound and a trend reversal.

The Supertrend maintains an upward direction at $77,021.48. Accordingly, the low $77,000 range serves as an important defensive zone in the short-term flow. If both the recent low in the $77,060 range and the Supertrend level break down simultaneously, the bearish alignment could come back into focus.

■ Volume at 52% of 7-Hour Average... Confirming the Breakout Is Essential

On the upside, whether Bitcoin recovers the $77,500 range is cited as the first key point to watch. As this is where the seven-day high is located, it is important to see whether trading volume increases as the price moves above this level.

The latest trading volume stands at 164 BTC, only about 52% of the recent seven-hour average. This means that although the price has rebounded, participation intensity remains relatively limited. Rather than simple price recovery, a breakout accompanied by volume may be more important in judging the short-term flow.

On the supply-demand side, buying and selling are also facing off. On a one-day basis, net inflow of large orders was tallied at 1,271.95 BTC, with a net inflow rate of 8.67%. While short-term technical indicators retain some bearish characteristics, buying inflows of a certain scale are continuing, making the situation closer to a battle zone than a one-directional flow.

■ Variables for Short-Term Direction: Breaking $77,500 and Recovering MA99

The market sees whether support in the low $77,000 range holds and whether Bitcoin climbs back above the $77,500 range as the variables that will determine short-term direction. Afterward, whether the price recovers to around $77,800, where the MA99 is located, could serve as an additional trend confirmation zone.

Bitcoin's current flow can be viewed as a stage of rebounding from lows, but technically, a complete recovery signal has not yet been confirmed. In the short term, it is necessary to simultaneously monitor defense of the low $77,000 range and a breakout above the $77,500 level.

[This article is for informational purposes only, based on publicly available market information and technical indicators, and does not recommend the purchase, sale, or holding of any specific virtual asset. Virtual assets are highly volatile, and scenarios based on technical analysis may unfold differently from actual movements. Investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the investor, and this article was written with the help of AI.]