Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple (XRP) are facing a new macroeconomic variable as the possibility of a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike grows.

■ Probability of Fed Rate Hike Rises to 86.5%

According to overseas crypto media outlet Coingape, the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates at its September 15–16 meeting (local time) has increased significantly, drawing attention to the price movements of major cryptocurrencies.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will raise its target rate range by 0.25 percentage points, from 3.50–3.75% to 3.75–4.00%, has climbed to 86.5%. Before the recent inflation data was released, the probability was around 70%. According to Coingape, if the rate hike actually takes place, it would be the first in three years. Market participants are also pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes.

This shift came after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a 3.4% increase from a year earlier. Coingape reported that the inflation data weighed on the broader cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin.

However, market expectations do not fully align with economists' forecasts. According to a Bloomberg survey on Fed policy cited by Coingape, few economists expected rates to change at the September 15–16 meeting (local time) or by the next rate decision point in December 2027 (local time). Fewer than 13% of the 48 respondents anticipated a rate hike this month.

■ Bitcoin's Technical Trend Still Tilts Toward Further Gains

Coingape also reported that, despite the rising likelihood of a rate hike, some analyses indicate Bitcoin's technical trend still leans toward further upside.

Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated on X that "Bitcoin is currently in a zone where it wants to see some price consolidation." According to van de Poppe's Bitcoin analysis chart introduced by Coingape, Bitcoin is digesting its recent decline and moving toward the key resistance zone of $90,000 to $92,000.

Van de Poppe also predicted that sideways movement will continue a bit longer before another upward move. Coingape reported that he forecast, "The next upward move is heading toward $90,000 and potentially up to $92,000." He explained that sharp price corrections are uncommon in bull markets, noting, "Rather, we see short periods of price consolidation and sideways stagnation."

■ Ethereum Battles the $2,550 Resistance Line

Coingape reported that Ethereum, like Bitcoin, is facing a crucial technical resistance zone.

On analyst Ted Pillows' Ethereum chart, ETH is trading at around $2,535, with the current resistance zone at $2,547–$2,550. Pillows said, "ETH has reached the $2,550 resistance line once again."

His chart, as presented by Coingape, shows the next major resistance level forming slightly above $2,800, with key support levels at approximately $2,215 and $1,965. Pillows' analysis suggests that if ETH holds above $2,550 on the weekly chart, the path to higher resistance zones could open. According to Coingape, Pillows projected, "If the weekly close forms above this level, Ethereum could rise to $3,000."

■ Ripple (XRP): The $1.35 Support Level Is the Deciding Factor

Coingape reported that some analyses suggest Ripple is in a relatively more precarious position.

According to the XRP price chart presented by analyst Ali Martinez, also known as Ali Charts, XRP fell roughly 20% over about three weeks, declining from $1.70 to $1.35. Martinez noted that whale investors sold or redistributed approximately 90 million XRP over the past week.

Data cited by Coingape showed that daily active addresses dropped 90.18%, from 388,492 to 38,163.

The $1.35 price level for XRP was highlighted as a particularly critical support zone. Coingape reported that 2.29 billion XRP have already been traded at that price. Martinez assessed, "The $1.35 support level is decisive." According to Coingape, he forecast that if XRP holds that level and then recovers $1.38, it could move back to $1.60 and potentially climb to $1.68.

[This article is by no means investment advice. The content may merely reflect opinions, so please do not use it as a reference or resource for investment decisions. All investments are made at the investor's own judgment and discretion, and the final responsibility lies with the investor. This publication assumes no responsibility whatsoever.]