As the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) benchmark interest rate decision draws near, global financial markets are focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At this meeting, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot Plot, released alongside the rate decision, are seen as key materials for gauging the future direction of the U.S. economy and monetary policy, as much as the rate decision itself.

According to the announcement schedule, the results will be released around 3 a.m. on the 17th, Korea time.

■ 92% Probability of a Rate Hike... Markets Weight a 'Hike'

The interest rate futures market is already placing considerable weight on the possibility of a hike. CME Group said on the 15th that its FedWatch reflects a 92% probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC. FedWatch calculates the probability of FOMC rate changes expected by market participants using 30-day federal funds futures prices.

Tension is also hanging over the bond market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.041% intraday on the 15th, its highest level since 2007. Rising long-term rates could affect stock market valuations as well as financing costs for businesses and households, making it a variable markets are watching alongside the FOMC outcome.

■ Hike or Pause... Policy Direction Lies in the 'SEP and Dot Plot'

However, simply confirming whether the FOMC raises rates by 0.25 percentage points or keeps them frozen makes it difficult to fully read the future policy trajectory. The materials markets need to examine more closely are the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot Plot, released together with the rate decision. CME's September economic calendar also states that the rate decision and economic projections will be released together at this FOMC meeting.

The SEP contains FOMC participants' projections for economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and the policy rate. By checking whether growth forecasts have been raised or lowered compared with previous projections, and how much inflation forecasts have changed, one can gauge how the Fed assesses the U.S. economy.

In particular, the Dot Plot is a key material for reading the future direction of rates. Each dot represents how an FOMC participant expects the appropriate policy rate level for a specific year.

[CME FedWatch probabilities are calculated based on federal funds futures prices, fluctuate in real time, and may differ from actual FOMC decisions. Economic projections and the Dot Plot are also FOMC participants' forecasts and may change depending on future economic conditions. This article is for general informational purposes and is not a recommendation to invest in any specific asset. The final judgment and responsibility for investments rest with the investor. AI assisted in part in the writing of this article.]