When the National Tax Service's released EITC payment records are laid out year by year, a point where the trend breaks emerges. Both the number of recipient households and the payment amounts in 2025 were lower than in 2022. The recipient scale, which had generally grown since the system's introduction, moved backward during this period.

■ 2023–2024 figures missing... cause of decline also unconfirmed However, this data lacks the EITC payment figures for 2023 and 2024, so the year-by-year trend in between cannot be determined. The reason for the decline in recipient households also cannot be confirmed from this data. There is no explanation of which income bracket households fell out of eligibility, whether incomes rose above the threshold, or whether applications themselves decreased.

■ By 2028, recipient households and payment amounts to exceed even 2022 levels The National Tax Service's estimates reflecting the 2026 tax revision plan go beyond this decline. The NTS projected that in 2028, when the revision's effects are fully reflected, both recipient households and payment amounts will increase significantly compared to 2025. These estimates exceed even 2022 levels.

The payment amount growth rate is presented higher than the household growth rate because not only newly eligible households but also the maximum payment amounts for existing recipient households will rise together.

■ Expanding eligibility over payment caps... income threshold increases nearly twice as large The revision's design places greater weight on expanding the eligibility range than on payment caps. For single-person, single-earner, and dual-earner households alike, both income requirements and maximum payment amounts rise, but the rate of increase in income requirements is nearly twice that of maximum payment amounts. Rather than substantially increasing amounts for households already receiving the credit, the structure opts for drawing in households just above the threshold that had been unable to receive it.

Most newly eligible households have incomes near the threshold, so they will receive amounts reduced according to income rather than the maximum payment.

■ Dual-earner household thresholds lowered relatively more The gap between household types also widens. The income requirement increase is largest for dual-earner households, so the threshold difference between single-earner and dual-earner households becomes wider than at present. In effect, the barrier for households where both spouses work is lowered relatively more.

■ Application begins with the September 2027 half-year application... first annual reflection in 2028 Actual application begins with taxable periods starting on or after January 1, 2027. For application channels, the September 2027 half-year application covering first-half 2027 income will be the first application point. The May 2027 regular application, filed with 2026 income, follows current standards. This is why 2028 is the first year the revision's effects are reflected on an annual basis.

■ Four variables to watch going forward ① May 2027 regular application results — this is the last annual application to which current standards apply. It will be a point to check whether recipient households fall further below 2025 levels; if household numbers decline further, the starting point of the NTS estimates may also change. ② National Assembly deliberation — the tax revision is a government bill, so standards may be adjusted during the legislative amendment process. ③ Asset requirements and child credit — this data does not include whether these two items will change. ④ Payment amount schedules by income bracket — only when detailed schedules are released can it be confirmed which income brackets the increased payments concentrate in.

[This article was written based on National Tax Service materials on the EITC revision and payment records. As the tax revision plan may change during the National Assembly's deliberation process, application eligibility and payment amounts must be confirmed through finalized statutes and official NTS guidance. This is an AI-assisted article.]