Overseas crypto media outlet CoinGap reported that the short-term options market for Ripple (XRP) is showing one of the strongest bullish signals in the current rally.

According to CoinGap, Coinbase Market reported that on September 23 (local time), the skew between XRP's one-week expiry 25-delta call options and put options rose to 9.3 points on a volatility basis. This corresponds to the 95th percentile. Coinbase Market posed the question of whether this movement represents "reasonable positioning or excessively concentrated demand."

The signal came after XRP rebounded sharply by roughly 15-18% over a week. CoinGap reported that XRP's spot price fell to around $1.39 before recovering to the mid-$1.50 range.

What does the sharp rise in skew mean?

CoinGap explained that the 25-delta risk reversal does not indicate a price target. Rather, it is an indicator showing which side—upside or downside—is commanding higher costs in the options market. At the current 9.3-point level, the implied volatility of one-week expiry XRP 25-delta call options is 9.3 points higher than that of put options under the same conditions. CoinGap interpreted this as market participants paying a premium for the possibility of a large upside move, beyond simple downside protection.

However, the change in the options market did not precede but followed XRP's price rise. According to CoinGap, XRP options trading volume surged 350% around the CLARITY Act vote, at one point surpassing the trading activity of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market sentiment has also changed significantly. CoinGap reported that from late 2025 to early 2026, the same one-week expiry skew frequently recorded negative values, sometimes falling below -10 points on a volatility basis. At the time, put options were relatively expensive. The current trend is the opposite. The skew once exceeded 15 points in late August (local time) before declining and then surging again. CoinGap explained that while the current level is very high compared to the past year, it is not the first bullish spike this quarter.

Volatility expectations also at highs... Futures market cruising

Two days before the skew reading, Coinbase Market noted that XRP had the largest expected price movement among major cryptocurrencies. According to CoinGap, the options market at the time reflected XRP's one-week price movement at ±8.9% on a one-sigma basis. This is wider than SOL, ETH, and BTC, and 1.79 times higher than the median of XRP's own seven-day price movement range. CoinGap said this shows market participants are not only anticipating larger price swings but also paying higher costs for upside movements.

The derivatives market has also reinforced this trend. According to CoinGap, XRP futures open interest grew to $4.1 billion, and futures trading volume on CME and Binance reached approximately $9 billion. Spot trading volume, meanwhile, fell short of this. CME subsequently overtook Binance to become the largest XRP futures trading market.

CoinGap reported this as a signal of institutional investors expanding their positions, noting that Coinbase's skew change is adding another variable to an already highly leveraged market. Buying call options after XRP has already risen 15-18% is a different situation from buying call options at the bottom. CoinGap said that if spot buying continues, late-arriving call option demand could create additional pressure, but if call options are liquidated en masse at the first correction, cost burdens could quickly grow.

Coinbase's post also did not state that XRP would rise another 9.3%. CoinGap explained that the figure means that upside-protection options have become unusually expensive relative to downside-protection options. Given that it appeared after a sharp rally, it could also be a signal of demand concentration as well as investor sentiment.

Spot, institutional, and on-chain signals all positive

In the spot market, CoinGap reported that XRP recovered the $1.40 range alongside $1.36 billion in short position liquidations over the past weekend (local time), and then climbed above $1.50 as Bitcoin recorded a multi-month high.

According to CoinGap, Ken Griffin's Citadel also disclosed a significant XRP ETF call option investment in recent public filings. CoinGap cited this as one of the backdrops showing that institutional investment flows paying for XRP upside potential are expanding.

On the XRP Ledger side, the native lending-related amendments XLS-65 and XLS-66 have entered the validator voting stage. XRP Ledger version 3.4.0 has also been released alongside the new lending protocol amendments. CoinGap said these elements are medium-term utility factors separate from the one-week expiry options skew, but they are among the backdrops supporting a positive view of XRP's underlying trend.

CoinGap explained that if spot prices hold and short position liquidations continue, the call-centered skew could persist. Conversely, if leverage in the futures market is rapidly unwound or the uptrend weakens, the skew could quickly reverse. CoinGap said investors watching this week's crypto options expiry flows are also likely to monitor whether premiums on call options shrink if XRP prices undergo a correction.

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