A chart comparing the long-term returns of Bitcoin (BTC) and a U.S. long-term Treasury bond ETF is drawing attention in the virtual asset community. However, given that the extreme return gap is calculated from Bitcoin's extremely low early price as a starting point, it needs to be viewed separately from the actual investment performance of ordinary investors.

■ The '$1,000 → approximately $18.8 billion' calculation

'whizze,' an active member of the CoinMarketCap community, shared a chart comparing the trajectories of Bitcoin and TLT, a U.S. long-term Treasury bond ETF, since 2010. According to the chart cited in the post, TLT's return was -37.19%, while Bitcoin's cumulative gain was shown at 1,885,241,233%.

By simple calculation, applying a return of 1,885,241,233% to $1,000 amounts to approximately $18.852 billion. Depending on the exchange rate, this translates to tens of trillions of won.

■ Why this is hard to accept as real investment performance

However, it is difficult to interpret this figure as the result of an actual investor putting in $1,000 and holding it unchanged. In 2010, the Bitcoin trading market was too small to compare with today's, and liquidity was limited. Bitcoin subsequently went through several major bear markets with declines of around 70–80%. The assumption that one held a large position from the beginning until now without selling even once is itself far removed from typical real-world investment cases.

The poster also drew a line, stating, "Chart returns are not a portfolio." Actual investment results can vary greatly depending on entry and exit timing, taxes, and interim trading.

■ Caution also needed in the TLT comparison…a different concept from official long-term total returns

There are also points to note in the comparison with TLT. TLT is not a product like depositing cash in a bank account; it is a long-term bond ETF investing in U.S. Treasuries with maturities exceeding 20 years. When interest rates rise, the value of existing long-term bonds can fall sharply, making it sensitive to rate changes. The asset manager iShares explains that TLT tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasuries with remaining maturities of 20 years or more and is a product concentrating investments in long-term U.S. Treasuries.

In fact, according to iShares, as of the end of June 2026, TLT's cumulative total return over the past 5 years was -29.15%, and over the past 10 years it was -17.68%. In contrast, the cumulative total return since inception was tallied at 137.42%. Therefore, the '-37.19% since 2010' figure presented in the post can vary depending on the calculation start date and how prices and dividends are handled, and it should not be taken as the same concept as official long-term total returns.

■ The key is 'differences in long-term price movements by asset class'

The core of this comparison is not the actual wealth of a specific investor but the difference in long-term price movements between asset classes. Long-term Treasuries underwent significant price corrections amid the rapid interest rate hikes after 2020, while Bitcoin, despite repeated extreme volatility, recorded an overwhelming cumulative gain compared with its extremely low prices in the early 2010s.

Ultimately, the statement that '$1,000 became approximately $18.8 billion' is a hypothetical result mathematically converted based on Bitcoin's early price. It does not mean any actual investor realized the same return. Nevertheless, it can be seen as a condensed example showing how large the long-term gap formed between Bitcoin's early price and its current price.

[Past returns and long-term price comparisons do not guarantee future gains, and analyses and forecasts may differ from actual market movements. Investment decisions and responsibility rest with the investor. This article was written based on publicly available materials with the assistance of AI.]