Bitcoin (BTC) showed an upward trend on the 5th (local time), crossing the $86,000 mark. As the probability of an October rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) fell to as low as 17%, market attention is now focused on the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, set to be released on the 7th (local time).

According to overseas cryptocurrency media outlet CoinGape, Bitcoin was trading at $86,160 as of the time of writing, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalization expanding to $2.93 trillion.

Rate Outlook Reverses After PCE Release

At its meeting on September 16 (local time), the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. CoinGape reported that after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated at the time that inflation was "too high," the probability of an additional rate hike at the October 28 (local time) meeting exceeded 80%.

However, the mood shifted after last week's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price data showed a notable slowdown in consumer price increases. According to CoinGape, Bitcoin's price rose after the PCE release, and the probability of an October rate hike in the firm's prediction market dropped to 17%.

Accordingly, the market is watching the September FOMC minutes, due to be released on the 7th (local time). Investors are expected to use the minutes to gauge whether Fed members are actively pushing for rate hikes or taking a cautious stance, and whether they judge that additional rate increases are necessary. CoinGape previously reported that Fed Governor Philip Jefferson indicated the possibility of keeping rates unchanged at the October meeting.

$86,000 Emerges as Short-Term Battleground… Breaking Through Sell Wall Is Key

In Bitcoin's short-term price movement, $86,000 has emerged as a key level. CoinGape analyzed that on Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, a sell wall has formed near $86,000 where short-term holders are taking profits.

According to CoinGape's analysis, if Bitcoin breaks through this sell wall, the next target price could be $87,395. It also suggested that if the uptrend continues further, there is a possibility of rising to $89,111, the Fibonacci 123.6% level.

Conversely, CoinGape forecasts that if selling pressure builds again at the $86,000 level, Bitcoin could retest the midline support of the ascending parallel channel before falling to $84,600, the Fibonacci 61.8% level.

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