As XRP continues to fluctuate around the $1.40 mark, crypto analyst Dark Defender has raised the possibility of a new upward wave. The key condition of the analysis is a weekly close above $1.56.

◆ Weekly Close Above $1.56: The Benchmark for a Bullish Turn

On the 10th, Dark Defender shared a technical analysis of XRP on his X (formerly Twitter) account, explaining that if a weekly close above $1.56 forms on the weekly chart, it can be judged that the correction of the second wave has been completed. He said he had been forecasting the development of the first sub-wave since XRP was trading around the $1 level.

The analysis presents upside targets in three stages. The first target is $1.88, followed by potential rises to $4.10 and $7.07. However, these prices are technical projections based on Elliott Wave theory, and whether and when they will actually be reached is not confirmed.

The $1.56 level carries meaning beyond a simple price point. According to his analysis, only a weekly close above that price would allow the interpretation that the correction phase has ended and a shift to the next upward wave has occurred. In other words, a brief intraday break above $1.56 must be distinguished from closing the weekly candle above that price.

◆ Correction Scenario Also Included... Support at $1.37 and $1.29

Separately from the bullish outlook, the analysis also includes the possibility of a continued correction. The support levels Dark Defender presented for sub-wave 2 are $1.37 and $1.29.

XRP has recently shown heightened volatility. According to market price data, it fell to as low as $1.32 intraday on the 8th, recovered to around $1.39 on the 9th, and traded around $1.40 on the 10th, showing a pattern of exploring the possibility of a rebound after the recent decline. As a result, whether the price holds near $1.37 and the possibility of recovery to $1.56 have emerged as key technical observation points.

◆ Limitations of Elliott Wave Theory... A Cautious Approach Is Needed

Elliott Wave theory is based on the assumption that market prices form a certain wave structure as they repeatedly rise and fall. In an upward structure, the third wave is generally noted for its potential to unfold strongly, but real markets do not always follow theoretical movements. In particular, the starting and ending points of waves can differ depending on the analysis, which means target prices can also vary. The targets of $4.10 and $7.07 in this outlook differ considerably from the current price, which also calls for a cautious approach.

Ultimately, the core of this analysis lies not in the high target prices themselves but in the conditions presented for judging a bullish turn. The $1.37 and $1.29 levels are price zones to watch during a decline, while $1.56 is the benchmark for determining whether the upside scenario progresses to the next stage. How XRP moves between these price levels, and whether changes are confirmed on the weekly chart, remain key points to watch going forward.

[This article was written based on public social media statements by crypto analyst Dark Defender and market price data. The target and support prices presented are the technical outlook of a specific analyst and may not match actual market movements. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk investment assets with high price volatility, and this article is not a recommendation to invest in any specific asset. Prices may vary depending on the exchange and the time of aggregation, and investment decisions and the resulting responsibility rest with the investor. This article was written with the assistance of AI.]