Market attention is focused on whether Bitcoin (BTC) can hold the psychologically important $80,000 support level. Heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, inflation concerns, and spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows are simultaneously eroding cryptocurrency investment sentiment.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet CoinGaep on the 17th (local time), Bitcoin is attempting to recover from the lows recorded last month but remains under pressure, gradually approaching the $80,000 level.

【Market Sentiment Cools Sharply... Fear and Greed Index Falls from 57 to 49】

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.74 trillion, down 0.93% over the past 24 hours. The market Fear and Greed Index fell from 57 last week to 49, currently sitting in neutral territory.

【Claims of Hormuz 'Blockade' vs. U.S. Military Saying 'Control Maintained'】

CoinGaep reported that as military tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, concerns are growing over the safety of ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

On the 17th (local time), a post on the X account 'Mojtaba Khamenei Commentary' claimed that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had launched a large-scale attack on U.S. vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The post warned that the strait had been closed and that ships attempting to pass through it would be burned.

However, according to CoinGaep, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, stated that U.S. forces and partner nations in the region maintain control over the strait. Admiral Cooper explained that approximately 400 commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, taking a position contrary to claims that the strait had been completely closed. He also said that U.S. military operations had blocked at least $25 billion worth of Iranian oil exports.

【Energy-Driven Price Burden... September CPI at 3.7%】

CoinGaep analyzed that if disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz worsen, energy prices could rise, sustaining inflationary pressure and potentially weakening investor interest in cryptocurrencies. In fact, the U.S. annual consumer price inflation rate for September came in at 3.7%. CoinGaep reported that this inflationary trend is adding further strain to an already unstable market.

【Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees $82.39 Million Net Outflow in a Day】

Investment capital has also been flowing out of the cryptocurrency spot ETF market. According to SoSoValue data cited by CoinGaep, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $82.39 million on the 16th (local time). Of this, $71.78 million exited BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT alone, accounting for the bulk of the total outflow.

Outflows continued from Ethereum spot ETFs as well. According to CoinGaep, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $69.68 million the same day, all of which exited BlackRock's ETHA. This marked the third consecutive trading day of net outflows for Ethereum spot ETFs.

Earlier in October (local time), roughly $974 million in liquidations occurred alongside nearly $1 billion in ETF outflows. CoinGaep reported that these capital outflows came in tandem with the earlier wave of selling.

【$80,000 vs. $82,000... Technical Indicators Also Weak】

Bitcoin's price has been moving below a key resistance level, showing no clear recovery trend. According to CoinGaep, Bitcoin traded at $81,568 on the 4-hour chart on the 17th (local time). After falling from around $87,000, Bitcoin has continued to move sideways between the $80,000 support level and the $82,000 resistance level.

Technical indicators also showed weak buying pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded 44, below the neutral threshold of 50, which CoinGaep interpreted as a sign of relatively weak buying pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish trend. The MACD line stood at -332.25, the signal line at -331.59, and the histogram at -0.65. The gap between the two lines was extremely small.

【Upside Target $83,500–$84,000, Downside $78,000】

CoinGaep analyzed that if Bitcoin closes above $82,000 on the 4-hour chart, it could be viewed as an initial recovery signal. However, it added the condition that the support level must hold during a subsequent retest of that price zone. If these conditions are met, CoinGaep projected that Bitcoin could move toward the $83,500–$84,000 range, a level where selling pressure emerged during the recent rebound.

Conversely, if Bitcoin faces resistance near $82,000 and declines again, it could retest the $80,000 support level. CoinGaep analyzed that if the 4-hour candle closes clearly below $80,000, the next key price level could be $78,000, a zone where price action was concentrated in previous trading.

According to CoinGaep's analysis, Bitcoin is currently moving between the $80,000 support and $82,000 resistance levels, and which direction it breaks out of this range will be the key focus going forward.

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