As Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP) attempt to rebound after escaping recent downward pressure, the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy has emerged as a key variable for the cryptocurrency market. With rising international oil prices driven by Middle East tensions combining with solid U.S. economic indicators, market views on the future price direction remain divided.

■ Easing Rate Hike Fears…"Market Showing Stabilizing Moves"

On the 18th, Vlad Anderson, a market analyst active in the CoinMarketCap community, analyzed that the cryptocurrency market has shown signs of regaining stability as concerns over the possibility of additional U.S. rate hikes have eased. Anderson noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not strongly signal the possibility of further rate increases. He explained that the market's assessed probability of an October rate hike has dropped from around 33% to about 15%. Amid this shift in expectations, Bitcoin recovered to approximately $82,300, he reported.

However, the assessment that the likelihood of a rate hike has decreased does not mean monetary policy is easing. Anderson emphasized that the Fed has not completely abandoned its existing hawkish stance.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the 27th to 28th is a key event drawing market attention. Along with the decision on the benchmark rate, the Fed's judgment on future policy direction could influence the price movements of Bitcoin and major altcoins. Anderson also suggested that monetary policy uncertainty in December could be greater than in October. Citing UBS's forecast of additional rate hikes, he pointed to the possibility that tensions surrounding prices and economic indicators will persist through the end of the year.

■ Oil Prices, Inflation, Consumption…Variables Still Abound

Rising energy prices were also cited as a factor to watch. Concerns over military conflict surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are heightening anxiety over crude oil supply, and if international oil prices remain at elevated levels, inflation pressure in the United States may not easily subside, according to the analysis.

U.S. consumer spending proving stronger than expected is another factor complicating the rate outlook. If consumption remains solid, the need for rate cuts to respond to an economic slowdown could diminish, and if price increases persist as well, the Fed's range of policy choices could narrow.

■ Bitcoin's 50-Day Moving Average and Ripple's Holding Its Low Are Key

For Bitcoin, Anderson presented maintaining the 50-day moving average as an important benchmark. If the price continues a stable trend above that moving average, the rebound could gain momentum, but if it falls back below $79,800, the assessment of the recent upward move could change, he explained.

Regarding Ripple (XRP), he focused on its recovery from around $1.28 to the $1.35 level. Anderson assessed that whether the recently formed low holds could serve as a criterion for gauging the sustainability of buying interest. However, that price level will not necessarily act as a support line.

Anderson's analysis places weight on the view that the cryptocurrency market, rather than immediately deciding on a clear upward or downward direction, is in the process of confirming changes in U.S. monetary policy. While easing rate hike fears may contribute to a short-term recovery in investor sentiment, international oil prices, inflation, and U.S. economic activity remain variables. Ultimately, the observation is that until the Fed's policy direction becomes more concrete after the FOMC meeting at the end of October, Bitcoin and Ripple (XRP) may show an unstable pattern of limited rebounds and corrections repeating.

Meanwhile, the rate hike probabilities, price levels, and financial institution forecasts mentioned by Anderson reflect analyses as of the time of posting and do not represent real-time market conditions or confirmed policy decisions. [These may change depending on policy shifts, corporate earnings, and market conditions, and responsibility for investment decisions and their outcomes lies with the investor. AI assistance was used in the writing of this article.]