Ripple (XRP) has fallen approximately 10% over the past week, recording a relatively large decline even as major cryptocurrencies showed weakness together. While Bitcoin defended its price around the $80,000 level, Ripple slid into the $1.20 range. With risk-aversion movements across the market coinciding with slowing network activity and technical selling pressure, a price recovery is proving difficult.

■ Altcoins Fall More Than Bitcoin... Impact of Risk-Aversion Sentiment

Based on daily price data from CoinGecko on the 19th, Ripple fell from approximately $1.41 on the 11th to approximately $1.27 on the 18th. Calculated from these two prices, the decline is about 9.9%. The 24-hour change also showed a negative 2-3% depending on the time of observation.

The first point to note in this decline is the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market. As Bitcoin was pushed toward the $80,000 level, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also weakened, and Ripple did not escape this trend. Notably, Ripple's decline was larger than Bitcoin's, showing that altcoins faced relatively stronger selling pressure amid the risk-averse atmosphere.

However, price change differences alone cannot definitively determine where actual investment funds moved. Flows in and out of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also a variable to examine. If institutional investor funds appear to be leaving risk assets, it could affect sentiment toward major cryptocurrencies. Still, determining how much ETF fund flows influenced this Ripple decline requires comparing separate fund flow data with the timing of price movements.

■ XRP Ledger Payment Volume Down 72% From Previous Day

Notable figures also emerged from Ripple's own network activity. According to recent data, payment volume between accounts on the XRP Ledger fell approximately 72% on the 17th compared to the previous day. This is an indicator suggesting that network payment activity may have contracted in the short term.

However, a one-day change in payment volume does not imply a long-term decline in network usage. Interpretation can vary depending on the number of transactions, transaction size, and aggregation methods. A causal relationship confirming that reduced payment activity directly caused Ripple's price decline has not been established. Evaluating the relationship between market price and network activity requires examining data over a period of time.

■ Selling Following Break Below Support... Liquidation Scale Requires Separate Verification

On the technical side, selling pressure following a break below a key support zone is being cited. When price falls below an existing support zone, stop-loss selling by short-term investors and trend-following sales can follow. In markets with heavy leverage trading, position liquidations can also amplify price movements.

However, determining how much liquidation actually occurred in this decline, or whether sell orders concentrated at specific price levels, requires separate trading data. A break below technical support alone cannot explain all the causes of the decline.

■ Weakness Persists Despite News of Expanded RLUSD Institutional Infrastructure

Ripple's long-term business environment and short-term price movements also need to be distinguished. On the 16th, news emerged regarding the expansion of institutional infrastructure for Ripple's dollar-pegged stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD). Broadening the use of stablecoins in institutional financial infrastructure could be meaningful from the perspective of business expansion for the Ripple ecosystem.

However, increased RLUSD usage does not necessarily translate into direct spot buying demand for XRP, as the two assets have different functions and demand structures. In fact, despite the news of business expansion, Ripple failed to escape its weakness over the past week. This shows that business progress and cryptocurrency prices may not move in the same direction in the short term. ■ Key Points to Watch for Judging a Rebound

Going forward, price movements forming around $1.27 along with changes in trading volume are expected to be closely watched. However, there is insufficient basis to definitively call $1.27 a verified technical support level. Whether Bitcoin stabilizes in price and whether declines narrow for major altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana are also necessary factors in assessing Ripple's rebound potential. Whether XRP Ledger payment activity recovers and whether trading volume accompanies any price increase also need to be confirmed.

Ripple's recent decline needs to be understood within the broader market weakness and differing investor sentiment across assets, rather than as a single piece of negative news. Slowing network activity and technical selling pressure are subjects for further review, but the evidence is limited for confirming each one's actual impact on the price decline. Ultimately, to judge whether Ripple escapes its short-term downtrend, one must watch not only Bitcoin's price defense but also a recovery across the altcoin market as a whole and improvements in XRP's own trading and network indicators.

[Virtual assets carry high volatility and the risk of principal loss, and market outlooks may differ from actual results. This article is not intended as investment advice, and investment decisions and responsibility rest with the investor. AI assistance was used in the writing process.]